NHL weekly betting guide: Fundamental difference between Oilers, Canucks

If you've been riding our cheat sheet to closing line value glory (and various degrees of betting success), you probably saw that the conceptual target price for the Oilers in Vancouver on Monday night was -120. Edmonton opened there, but it was the Canucks that got bet to the point where the Oilers could've been had at -110.

Compare this to Oct. 11 - the opener for both teams - where the Oilers were -160 to beat the Canucks at Rogers Arena. That's an implied win probability drop from 61.5% to 52.4%. The Canucks trucked the Oilers in both games, which is only tangential to the point.

Searching for value based on power ratings is always only a starting point. This early in the season, a high percentage of that -120 target price is based on prior ratings from before the season.

Luckily, we get to make our own decisions about what to bet. We're through roughly 13% of the NHL season, and no team rated on the same echelon as the Oilers has disappointed as Edmonton has, even though its advanced metrics are promising, with the second-best even-strength expected goals share and the third-best high-danger chance share.

The Oilers' issue is the inverse of what's made the Canucks so impressive, and that's goaltending.

Thatcher Demko leads the NHL with 15.01 goals saved above expectation, over five goals ahead of second-place Jeremy Swayman.

On Monday night, the Canucks allowed nine even-strength high-danger chances and had only eight of their own - numbers that are right at the league average. However, Vancouver scored on four, while Demko didn't allow any of those opportunities to beat him.

It's a long season, but so far, the Canucks are converting 17% of their even-strength HDCs, and the Oilers just 9.4%. The league average is 13%, and there's nothing different with Edmonton's personnel that would suggest that wouldn't even out, and the Canucks are clearly on a heater. However, knowing what we do about the personnel between the pipes, there's the element where a statistical regression shouldn't necessarily be expected.

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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