NHL Wednesday best bets: Matthews to exploit struggling Senators

Tuesday night was a great one on the ice. We won both of our best bets as well as two of three props, giving us a 4-1 record.

Although nothing stands out in terms of sides and totals for this three-game slate, there is plenty of value on the board in terms of props. Let's dig in.

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

Matthews is an absolute force on home ice. He's averaging 5.8 shots and 9.2 attempts per game while playing in Toronto this season. Unsurprisingly, those insane outputs have led to great success with his shot props.

He has gone over in five of six games played at home, only failing to get the job done against a stingy Kings team.

The Senators should be a welcome sight for a red-hot Matthews. They are dealing with several injuries on defense, and it shows. No team has allowed more five-on-five shots per 60 minutes over the last five games. Factor in that they also take plenty of penalties, and it's a great matchup for Matthews across the board.

Odds: -110 (playable to -135)

Tim Stutzle: Over 2.5 shots

Stutzle has gone over his shot total in seven of 10 games this season. Although he failed to record three in two of the past three contests, and his attempt volume is done, I expect him to find success against the Maple Leafs.

He will be centering Mathieu Joseph and Claude Giroux on the Senators' second line. Dating back to last year, Stutzle's individual shot rates are higher with Joseph and Giroux than they are while skating alongside Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, or other notable forwards on the roster. That's a plus.

The matchup is quite solid as the Maple Leafs have given up shots in bulk and shown a tendency to play high-event games.

Senators head coach DJ Smith also made a point to say Stutzle needs to simplify his game and stop trying to do too much. That could lead to more shots as opposed to overpassing.

Lastly, it's worth noting Stutzle has a nice history against the Maple Leafs. He has piled up 22 shot attempts and four points over his last three games against Toronto while going over his shot total in each.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Shea Theodore: Under 2.5 shots

Theodore is a very gifted offensive defenseman, but he doesn't shoot the puck a whole lot. He's gone under in nine of 13 games this year (69%) and five of the last six games.

He didn't attempt more than six shots once in that six-game span, and, including last year, Theodore has recorded two shots or fewer in 50 of the past 65 games in which he attempted six shots or fewer.

I don't envision seeing much of an uptick from Theodore in this spot. The Kings are fantastic at shot suppression and allow next to nothing against opposing defensemen. In fact, only three teams have conceded fewer shots per game against the position this season.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Trevor Moore: Over 2.5 shots

Moore has registered at least three shots in eight of 11 games to start the season. He has done the majority of his damage at five-on-five, where he leads the Kings in attempts and shots on goal.

That's very noteworthy heading into a matchup with the Golden Knights. Believe it or not, they have allowed a ton of shot volume at even strength this season.

The Golden Knights are giving up more than 64 shot attempts per 60 at five-on-five. That number - which is actually trending downwards - surrounds them with teams like the Senators and Ducks.

Expect Moore to be the prime beneficiary.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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