Calder Trophy odds update: Bedard widens the gap

We're just over a month into the season and Connor Bedard has already seen his implied odds of winning the Calder soar from 56% to 73%.

Let's take a closer look at why, and figure out who - if anyone - can challenge the young phenom the rest of the way.

The Calder Trophy was Bedard's to lose heading into the season, and he's shown no signs he's ready to give it away. Bedard leads all rookies in points with 13 through 13 games.

Although Bedard hasn't truly separated himself from the pack - at least not yet - he has the best offensive outputs of the bunch and is producing with little talent surrounding him. So long as that's the case, he's extremely likely to win. The odds reflect that.

There are plenty of guys nipping at Bedard's heels ready to pounce if he were to slip up or suffer an injury.

Logan Cooley has transitioned smoothly to the NHL and sits second among rookies in points while leading the group with 10 assists. Seven of those assists are primary, which puts him in a tie for 16th among all skaters. His playmaking is keeping him in the mix.

With six goals in 10 games for the surprisingly competitive Ducks, Leo Carlsson is surging up the board and is nearly half the price he was a month ago. The problem with Carlsson is he's going through a load-management program and not playing every night. Keeping up with Bedard is going to be tough when dressing in fewer games.

Luke Hughes started the season in remarkable fashion for a Devils team that was clicking at a historic rate on the power play. Unfortunately, the offense has dried up for Luke with stars Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier sidelined due to injury. The Devils aren't scoring nearly as much, making it a lot tougher on the youngest Hughes to put up enough points to remain relevant.

At this point, another defenseman - Pavel Mintyukov - appears more likely to challenge for the Calder. He's piled up 10 points for the Ducks and looks excellent quarterbacking a dangerous top power-play unit.

His on-ice impact is strong as well, with Mintyukov owning a positive goal differential and the second-highest expected goals share among Ducks defenders. There is value at +2500.

Adam Fantilli and Matthew Knies have seen their odds balloon a little bit and for good reason. Fantilli has points in three straight games but is averaging just 13:54 of ice time per game in November, a far cry from the 16:22 he averaged in October. He is unlikely to produce consistently enough with that kind of usage.

Knies has taken on a bigger role with the Maple Leafs of late, but he's more of a complimentary piece than a dynamic, puck-dominant player like Bedard, Cooley, or Carlsson. That makes it tougher for him to find the scoresheet.

All in all, it feels like most - if not all - of the rookies behind the pack need plenty of things to break their way while Bedard only needs good health to take home some hardware.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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