NHL head coaching carousel: Odds suggest Senators next to make a change
Just a few weeks ago, Jay Woodcroft was considered one of the favorites to win the Jack Adams Award as the coach of the year. Fast forward to now, and the Oilers have already made a change behind the bench following a 3-9-1 start to the season.
Clearly, things can change in a hurry in the NHL.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at which head coaches oddsmakers at theScore Bet believe are most likely to be replaced next.
| Coach (team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| D.J. Smith (OTT) | +170 |
| Dean Evason (MIN) | +350 |
| Andrew Brunette (NSH) | +600 |
| David Quinn (SJ) | +700 |
| Sheldon Keefe (TOR) | +1200 |
| Ryan Huska (CGY) | +1300 |
| Pascal Vincent (CBJ) | +1500 |
| Lane Lambert (NYI) | +1800 |
| Don Granato (BUF) | +1800 |
| John Tortorella (PHI) | +3000 |
| Luke Richardson (CHI) | +3000 |
| Craig Berube (STL) | +3300 |
| Dave Hakstol (SEA) | +3300 |
| Mike Sullivan (PIT) | +4000 |
Odds via theScore Bet. Only listed coaches at +4000 or shorter.
The Senators' D.J. Smith is the favorite to be the next coach replaced at +170, which equates to a 37% implied probability.
That's understandable - Ottawa hasn't lived up to its relatively high expectations coming into the season. The Senators have won six of 13 games, and the numbers beneath the surface paint an even bleaker picture.
They've controlled 44% of the expected goals at five-on-five, slotting them ahead of only the Sharks, Blues, and Blackhawks. That isn't the kind of company a team with playoff aspirations should keep.
The Senators have a new owner and a new president of hockey operations, neither of whom brought in Smith. When changes are made up top, the new people in power generally want to bring in their own coach. It feels like only a matter of time before the Senators walk down that path.
Dean Evason is right behind Smith in the pecking order. With just five wins through 15 games, the Wild are off to a miserable start. They're generally a very stout team, but their defensive metrics are down, and the goaltending has been horrible. If things don't turn around soon, the Wild may opt to bring in a new voice and give everyone a clean slate.
Andrew Brunette, Pascal Vincent, and Ryan Huska all have relatively high implied odds of being removed from their posts but are each in their first season on the job. They should all be safe regardless of how many losses they pile up.
Sheldon Keefe isn't too far down the list, although his job feels more secure than the odds indicate. New GM Brad Treliving could have moved on from Keefe in the summer but elected to keep him around and dish out a two-year contract extension that keeps him signed through 2025. It'd take a lot more than an 8-5-2 start for Treliving to go to the Maple Leafs' ownership with a costly change of heart.
Lane Lambert is one name that stands out at +1800. Only three teams have won fewer games than the Islanders to date, and New York owns some truly miserable defensive metrics. Lou Lamoriello is a defense-first general manager and is never shy about making changes behind the bench. The leash is undoubtedly short.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.
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