The Netherlands underestimated the far right – and Geert Wilders’ victory is the result | Cas Mudde

Media complacency and outgoing PM Mark Rutte's decision to campaign on immigration have created a political earthquake

Two things were already clear months before Dutch election day: the Netherlands would have a new prime minister and dozens of new parliamentarians. Forty sitting members of parliament, a quarter of the Tweede Kamer (lower house), and, even more striking, three of the four leaders of the outgoing conservative-led coalition had announced their departure from national politics. Ironically, in this sea of electoral change, it was the far-right mainstay, Geert Wilders, the soon-to-be longest-sitting MP, who would emerge the big winner.

How do we make sense of the political earthquake that has put Wilders and his PVV party in first place and how will it affect Dutch and European politics? The first, and most important, lesson is one that Dutch politicians in particular should have known, as it has happened over and over again in the past three decades in the Netherlands and throughout western Europe. If you make the elections about the issues of the far right, notably the problem" of immigration, the far right wins. We saw this most recently in Sweden.

Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia and an adjunct professor at the Center for Research on Extremism (C-Rex) at the University of Oslo