NHL Monday player props: Barkov to fire vs. Senators

We have a juicy six-game slate to begin the week. Let's look at a few of my favorite props as we look to start off on a winning note.

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots

Barkov is somewhat of a matchup-dependent shooter. The good news is that he has a great one Monday night in Ottawa.

The Senators are dealing with injuries on defense - and bleeding shots as a result. Only the Sharks, Islanders, and Blue Jackets have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher clip over the past 10 games. That should benefit Barkov, who has one of the highest even-strength shot rates on the Panthers this season.

Barkov also has a very strong track record against the Senators: He's registered 19 shots on goal and 31 attempts over the past five head-to-head meetings. Unsurprisingly, he went over his shot total in four of them.

The Panthers are coming off a pair of losses and had three of the past four days off. Barkov, well-rested and hungry, should get a full workload against an exploitable Sens defense.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Vincent Trocheck under 2.5 shots

Trocheck has gone under his shot total in 13 of 19 games (68%) and often falls well short. He's averaging just 1.7 shots on goal and has finished with one or fewer in nine of 19 tries. Obviously, he's not a big shooter.

I'm not sure the Sabres are the best matchup to extract a ceiling performance. They rank sixth in five-on-five shot suppression over the past 10 games and are one of the league's best teams at limiting volume to opposing centers.

Of note, centers with 2.5 shooting lines like Evgeni Malkin (twice), Mark Scheifele, Connor Bedard, and Sebastian Aho have recently fallen short against the Sabres. The last pivot with a 2.5 total to go over was the Senators' Josh Norris - and that happened in October.

Although Trocheck did go over his total against the Sabres in early October, he failed to get the job done on three different occasions this past spring. I expect that to be the case again this time around.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Jack Eichel under 3.5 shots

Eichel doesn't need a ton of attempts to find the back of the net on any given night. He's an accurate shooter, which makes him a scary player to fade - but this contest against the Flames is worth taking the plunge.

He's very dependent on the power play for shooting success. Over the past 10 games, Eichel's generated 34 shots (3.4 per game) 14 of which came on the power play. That's more than 41% of his volume.

I don't think power-play dependency is a good recipe for success against the Flames. They've been one of the 10 best teams at avoiding penalties this season - and they're only getting more disciplined.

It's also worth noting the Flames aren't a great positional matchup. They're 24th in shots allowed per game to centers, on par with the Kings, Jets, and Avalanche.

Additionally, Eichel has registered four attempts or fewer in five straight outings against the Flames. Although Darryl Sutter is gone, the Flames' defensive numbers are solid and the team's core remains intact. This isn't a great spot for him.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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