A second Trump term will be far more autocratic than the first. He’s telling us | Jan-Werner Müller

Trump is broadcasting his plans in advance - and, if elected, he'll claim he has a mandate to accrue power and exact retribution

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Plenty of observers seem to think that's all one needs to know as one beholds Donald Trump's seemingly inevitable Republican nomination for president and possible second term. They assume that because it wasn't fascism the first time, it cannot be fascism the second time; Trump is expected once more to be the bumbling, blustering buffoon, supervised by adults in the room.

This relaxed view ignores that, with today's pioneers of autocracy, things tend to only get really bad when they enter office the second time. The difference with Trump is not that he would leave democracy intact; the difference is that figures like far-right Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban or Polish strongman Jarosaw Kaczyski carefully hid their authoritarian plans. Trump, by contrast, is broadcasting everything in advance - and, if elected, will claim that he has a mandate to exact retribution and occupy the White House permanently.

Jan-Werner Muller is a professor of politics at Princeton University. He is also a Guardian US columnist