NFL Week 13 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
What does range mean?
If you've ever wondered, we saw a perfect example when the 49ers took on the Eagles on Sunday.
San Francisco was bet out to -3 in Philadelphia - a point spread that would be asinine if all things were equal. The Eagles' average rating has been in the low 70s, while the 49ers had crept into to the high 70s. If a maximum point spread is -27, and Philly's home-field advantage is two points, those average ratings would create a pick'em game.
The reason the range surrounds a team's core average is that sometimes it's predictable for teams to play above or below that level. Appearing in their third big game in 13 days, the Eagles were expected to perform at the lower end of their capabilities. With revenge and 10 days of rest, the 49ers were expected to play at their peak. Both teams fulfilled those expectations.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 81 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 75 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 74 | 60-80 |
| Dolphins | 71 | 55-75 |
| Bills | 71 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 67 | 55-75 |
| Eagles | 63 | 60-80 |
| Lions | 63 | 50-70 |
| Jaguars | 61 | 45-65 |
| Chargers | 51 | 40-60 |
| Rams | 50 | 35-55 |
| Texans | 50 | 30-50 |
| Vikings | 48 | 35-55 |
| Packers | 46 | 35-55 |
| Seahawks | 46 | 40-60 |
| Steelers | 46 | 40-60 |
| Broncos | 45 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 44 | 35-55 |
| Saints | 41 | 40-60 |
| Browns | 41 | 40-60 |
| Bears | 41 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 39 | 35-55 |
| Raiders | 35 | 30-50 |
| Titans | 34 | 30-50 |
| Buccaneers | 34 | 30-50 |
| Cardinals | 33 | 20-40 |
| Commanders | 32 | 25-45 |
| Bengals | 28 | 25-65 |
| Patriots | 28 | 25-45 |
| Panthers | 27 | 20-40 |
| Jets | 24 | 20-40 |
| Giants | 20 | 20-40 |
The 49ers continue to burst through the ceiling into the realm of historically great, although their three-game losing streak without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams threw some people off the scent. Meanwhile, the Eagles will likely move back up depending on where their point spread with the Cowboys closes, but they're at a scheduling disadvantage once again.
The Jaguars closed -10 on Monday night against the Bengals, meaning their rating rose to the top of their range and Cincinnati's fell lower. Even before Trevor Lawrence got hurt, it looked like that was a mistake on both ends. Now the Jags' rating will suffer, going from ceiling to floor without their star quarterback.
The Steelers won't see the same fluctuation with Kenny Pickett out and Mitch Trubisky in, but maybe they should. It will be hard to decipher against the Patriots, who can't be rated low enough despite another great showing from their defense.
The Packers moved up after their upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving, and you'd think they are headed for another boost after knocking off the Chiefs. If that line seemed short to you, you didn't believe in what Jordan Love and Green Bay's offense showed in recent weeks. The Packers' schedule sets them up for a run to the playoffs, where a rubber match in Detroit potentially awaits.
At the bottom of the table, the Panthers got a lot healthier on defense in conjunction with a coaching change, while the Buccaneers' defense was missing key pieces. That combination of circumstances brought the spread down from Tampa Bay -5 to almost the field-goal margin of the eventual final score.
The Giants look to get Tyrod Taylor back this week, but is there any reason to start him over Tommy DeVito - who won and covered the two games before the bye despite being rated in the basement of the NFL?
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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