NFL Week 14 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
It feels like just yesterday that we were translating NFC and AFC win total markets into our first betting ratings for the 2023 NFL season. But here we are with our final weekly NFL betting market report for the season.
By now, you get the point - the 49ers are considered a historically great team. Each week, sizeable downgrades occur when a club loses its starting quarterback. And value is created by how that team reacts, like the Justin Herbert-less Los Angeles Chargers.
With weather, more second-, third-, and fourth-string quarterbacks than we ever imagined, and lingering injuries that can take down a key player or wipe out an entire position group, we've got enough data points to know where these teams should be rated. For the season's final four weeks, we'll make bets based on situation, injury report, and motivation instead of whether a team is overrated or underrated.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 85 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 73 | 60-80 |
| Dolphins | 72 | 55-75 |
| Bills | 71 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 70 | 55-75 |
| Chiefs | 69 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 67 | 60-80 |
| Lions | 59 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 53 | 40-60 |
| Rams | 50 | 35-55 |
| Texans | 50 | 30-50 |
| Vikings | 49 | 35-55 |
| Bengals | 48 | 35-65 |
| Broncos | 46 | 35-55 |
| Packers | 46 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 46 | 35-55 |
| Browns | 42 | 40-60 |
| Bears | 41 | 30-50 |
| Steelers | 41 | 40-60 |
| Buccaneers | 41 | 30-50 |
| Saints | 40 | 35-55 |
| Jaguars | 40 | 45-65 |
| Falcons | 39 | 35-55 |
| Seahawks | 35 | 40-60 |
| Jets | 34 | 20-40 |
| Cardinals | 33 | 20-40 |
| Commanders | 32 | 25-45 |
| Raiders | 30 | 30-50 |
| Titans | 28 | 30-50 |
| Patriots | 28 | 25-45 |
| Panthers | 27 | 20-40 |
| Giants | 24 | 20-40 |
San Francisco's rating continues to go through the roof. Meanwhile, the Seahawks' rating plunged through their floor when they confirmed Drew Lock as their starter. The resulting move from -10.5 to -15 created an opportunity for those willing to buy Seattle at an inflated number.
The Jaguars' rating plummeted even though Trevor Lawrence was well enough to play in Cleveland, going from projected favorites to underdogs.
How bad was Tim Boyle? Zach Wilson's return sent the Jets' rating up, dropping their point spread with Houston. And that was the correct move.
Do you think the market had the Bengals rated incorrectly in Week 13? Cincinnati saw its rating go back way up after beating the Jags, and the team outperformed that by dispatching the Colts.
The Giants and Titans proved their seasons aren't done Monday night. This is a reminder of how rare it is for teams to truly fall apart this time of year with players and coaches working for their future place in the NFL. The seven teams (that played) at the bottom of the ratings went 5-1-1 against the spread in Week 14.
If you were wondering why the Bills' win over the Chiefs wasn't an upset, it's because Kansas City has dropped below Buffalo in the betting market. The Bills are now threatening for a wild-card spot, though they're still an underdog to get there because of tiebreakers. With the Dolphins' loss to Tennessee, Buffalo can also catch Miami for the AFC East. The Bills' rating complicates a fun exercise to conclude our season, one that projects a high-quality AFC team playing out of the 7-seed.
Here's a forecast of the point spreads for every wild-card game - without knowing the matchups - with a guess on when each contest will be played.
| DATE & TIME | MATCHUP | PROJ. SPREAD |
|---|---|---|
| Sat. Jan. 13(4:30 p.m ET) | NFC 6-seed vs. NFC 3-seed | NFC No. 3 (-5.5) |
| Sat. Jan. 13(8:00 p.m ET) | AFC 7-seed vs. AFC 2-seed | AFC No. 2 (-9.5) |
| Sun. Jan. 14(1:00 p.m ET) | AFC 5-seed vs. AFC 4-seed | AFC No. 4 (-4.5) |
| Sun.Jan. 14(4:30 p.m ET) | NFC 7-seed vs. NFC 2-seed | NFC No. 2 (-10.5) |
| Sun.Jan. 14 (8:00 p.m. ET) | AFC 6-seed vs. AFC 3-seed | AFCNo. 3(-9.5) |
| Mon.Jan. 15(8:00 p.m ET) | NFC 5-seed vs. NFC 4-seed | NFC No. 4(+6) |
We'll compare and contrast my Wild Card Weekend projections with theScore Bet's lookahead lines, which are expected to be posted later in the week.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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