War or peace? Dictatorship or democracy? Europe’s future is on the line | Timothy Garton Ash

At the European Council, liberalism and populism will lock horns. Whichever side prevails could decide the course for years to come

I have been in more than 20 European countries this year and I have seen two Europes. Across large parts of the continent, you're still in a Europe where high-speed trains waft you across frontiers you hardly notice, as you travel seamlessly between highly integrated liberal democracies resolved to solve all their remaining conflicts by peaceful means. But take an old slow train just a few hours to the east and you are spending time in bomb shelters and talking to badly wounded soldiers with tales from the trenches reminiscent of the first world war. I keep the Air Alarm Ukraine app active on my phone, so its warnings of air raids on Ukrainian cities remind me every day of that other Europe.

There's a related duality in our politics. Many European countries still have governments on the spectrum between centre-left and centre-right, often with complicated coalitions, yet all committed one way or another to making both liberal democracy and the European Union work. In Poland, we can this week celebrate the return of such a government under Donald Tusk, kicking out a populist nationalist party that had dangerously threatened the country's democracy. On the other hand, populist nationalist parties of the hard right have scored notable successes, from the emergence of Giorgia Meloni as Italian prime minister last year, through to worrying regional election gains for Germany's Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) and the recent election victory of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. Hungarian leader Viktor Orban is more aggressive than ever as he works against both the interests and the values of the EU, while exploiting all the advantages of membership in it. (Brexiters at least had the honesty to leave the club they loathe.)

Timothy Garton Ash is a Guardian columnist. His latest book, Homelands: A Personal History of Europe, is being published in more than 20 European languages