Will the hard right really sweep Europe in 2024? If it does, here’s what could happen | Nathalie Tocci

Governments are already shifting gear on issues from Ukraine to the climate crisis - and the US election could change everything

There has been much talk of late about a renewed far right surge in Europe, especially as the continent looks ahead to the European parliament elections next June. Is this tilt to the right likely to happen - and what could it mean for us?

This fear has ebbed and flowed. It took off when Georgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy surged in elections last year, as did the hard-right Sweden Democrats, which entered government for the first time. The following months saw rightwing wins in Finland and Greece too. The firm conviction that there was an inexorable rise of the right then crumbled in July this year, when in Spain the hard-right Vox and the conservative Popular party failed to win a joint majority in elections, leading to the eventual return of a progressive coalition led by Pedro Sanchez. Three months later, Poles voted to oust the populist right Law and Justice party, opening the way to a liberal government led by a former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk.

Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist