Wild Card Weekend betting: Any value in early lookahead lines?

There would never be a wager to make if we always agreed with oddsmakers' betting lines, and what's the fun in that?

I posted my guess on what the point spreads will be for all six games on Wild Card Weekend in our final NFL betting market report this season, four weeks away from knowing the matchups. It's a fun exercise to use estimated market ratings to start thinking about the playoff picture down the stretch.

The intrepid oddsmakers over at theScore Bet and ESPN BET have posted their lookahead lines, which are available for betting. Interestingly, there are some discrepancies!

NFC 5th Seed @ NFC 4th Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
4-Seed (-6)	4-Seed (-4.5)

We'll start with a game that's relatively easy to project. The NFC's No. 5 seed will be either the Eagles or the Cowboys. However, with Philadelphia still -300 to win the NFC East, it's more likely to be Dallas.

Lately, the Cowboys' rating has moved past the Eagles', so Dallas may be perceived as the better team between the two. The Cowboys are considered to be much better than last year when they were -3 at Tampa Bay. This year, they'll take on whichever NFC South team - potentially the Buccaneers for a rematch - keeps their head above water long enough to win the division.

The Saints, Falcons, and Bucs are all rated virtually the same, so the point spread shouldn't change regardless of the opponent. The last of this trio to host a contender was the Saints (+4.5) against Detroit two weeks ago. The Cowboys are better than the Lions, so I'd bet that the NFC East runner-up opens higher than -4.5 in mid-January, making the 4-seed worth a small bet now.

AFC 5th Seed @ AFC 4th Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
4-Seed (-4.5)	4-Seed (-4.5)

We're both in line with the AFC's 5-4 matchup. The Jaguars (-500 to win the AFC South) are the appropriate assumption as the fourth seed after two straight losses, and they're underdogs to Baltimore this weekend.

If you work ESPN's Playoff Machine, the highly rated AFC East runner-up - Buffalo or Miami - rarely qualifies for the 5-seed. Instead, Cleveland and Denver show up in that spot quite frequently. The Browns and Broncos, along with fellow wild-card hopefuls Pittsburgh, Indy, and Houston, are all rated within an eyelash of each other.

While the line is fair, any of the teams mentioned above would be a decent look as 4.5-point underdogs in Jacksonville. So, betting on the 5-seed (+4.5) now is the play.

AFC 6th Seed @ AFC 3rd Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
3-Seed(-9.5)	3-Seed (-6.5)

We can agree that the AFC South winner will likely be the 4-seed, leaving the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, and Dolphins as the candidates to populate the top three. Pick whichever team you like from that group and picture them hosting one of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts, or Texans. I'd gladly give 6.5 points to any of those wild-card clubs at home with a top-tier team in the AFC.

There are a pair of caveats to this game's discrepancy. The first is that my actual projections come out to -8.5. However, since I'm trying to predict what the number will be a month from now, I'm guessing sportsbooks that allow for teasers would bump that to 9.5 to protect against using a 6-point teaser to take the line under a field goal.

The second is that there are some scenarios where the AFC East runner-up gets the 6-seed. If that's the case, you'll get a line very close to what we saw in Week 14 when the Chiefs were just -1.5 at home to Buffalo. If 6.5 points is just an average of the two prevailing options, that's a mistake.

NFC 6th Seed @ NFC 3rd Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
3-Seed(-5.5)	3-Seed (-6)

There's very little discrepancy here, with no dangerous Bills-esque team that can take the No. 6 spot in the NFC. The Packers let a chance to give the Lions a scare fall through their fingers Monday night, so Detroit will likely host one of Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, or Los Angeles as the 3-seed.

Depending on how you feel about that group and the Lions' recent downturn, taking the points might get you some closing line value (CLV) at a relatively key number of +6. Considering the top non-NFC East wild card should be coming into the playoffs hot, it's hard to imagine that this line ends up higher than -6.

AFC 7th Seed @ AFC 2nd Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
AFC -9.5	AFC -6.5

Almost everything said in the discussion about the potential 6-3 matchup in the AFC applies here as well. However, there's the added caveat that this is Buffalo's most likely landing spot in the playoff bracket.

The Bills are still a slight favorite to miss the playoffs, and there are some scenarios where Buffalo and Miami make it in slots other than the 7-seed. So I have to assume this is a Super Bowl contender against an also-ran.

Since this matchup is likely Baltimore, Kansas City, or the AFC East winner hosting either a mediocre team or the No. 2 club in the AFC East, the line will either be over a touchdown or under a field goal, meaning -6.5 is not the correct number.

If you think two AFC East teams make the playoffs, the bet is on the 7-seed at +6.5. If not, take the 2-seed and enjoy your CLV.

NFC 7th Seed @ NFC 2nd Seed

RUSSELL'S LINE	ODDSMAKERS' LINE
NFC -10.5	NFC -9.5

There's a small discrepancy here, and it hinges on whether the 49ers run the table and get the 1-seed over the Eagles.

If they don't, the 49ers would be higher than -10, as they were when they hosted the Seahawks (a candidate for the 7-seed) in Week 14. I wouldn't want to have liability on San Francisco -9.5 if I were a sportsbook.

If they do, and the Eagles host a team like Minnesota, -9.5 is probably the right line. However, I'd be on Philadelphia to win in a blowout. There's just nothing to do right now.

We'll revisit this leading up to Wild Card Weekend to see how close we were to guessing where these point spreads land. And, of course, there'll be a full betting breakdown of each game once we know who the teams are.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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