Key takeaways and analysis from Week 15 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Bills are officially back Rich Barnes / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Bills beating the Cowboys shouldn't be all that surprising. This team was always a whole lot better than its record suggested, and traveling across the country to play in Buffalo will never be an easy task.

Teams around the NFL should be taking notice after this one, though. Not only did the Bills dominate from start to finish, but they did so with Josh Allen accounting for a mere 94 passing yards on seven completions. Soak it in, Bills fans - they're running the ball.

James Cook led the way with the biggest and most productive workload of his young career, taking 25 carries for 179 yards. That's the most rushing yards for a Buffalo running back since Fred Jackson in 2012. With Allen, Ty Johnson, and Latavius Murray also chipping in, the Bills finished the day with 266 rushing yards - their highest team total since 2016.

Before you credit the run game entirely to new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, it's important to note that the rushing attack has quietly been a force throughout this season. After consistent issues in 2022 that culminated in a snowy playoff loss to the Bengals, the Bills found a way to run the ball better from the outset of this season.

Ken Dorsey was actually leading an offense that ranked first in rush success rate and second in EPA/rush over the first 10 weeks of the season, according to Ben Baldwin's database. Credit where it's due - this has been in the works for a while. But if a play-caller change was the key to unlocking some added flexibility, and a willingness to go full Run Mode where necessary, so be it. It's hard to argue with the results.

Forget the seemingly pedestrian record. Buffalo is going to be in the playoffs, and this version of the Bills can win however they need to win. That malleability was sorely missing in previous years.

Nobody wants to meet this team in January.

MVPurdy? Cooper Neill / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It's time to accept it.

I've never been all that interested in the Brock Purdy MVP narrative. Several candidates around the league do more to elevate their respective teams, and you could make the argument that there are at least two more "valuable" players on the 49ers offense alone.

But the numbers are what they are. At a time when the league's elite quarterbacks are failing to separate themselves from the pack, we should all be getting used to the idea of Purdy doing the unthinkable.

Sunday's 45-point outing against the Cardinals was the latest in a long line of near flawless performances from the 49ers quarterback. Purdy now has three games with four-plus touchdowns and no interceptions. No other QB has more than one this season.

With three games to go, the sophomore signal-caller is completing 70% of his passes, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt, and throwing a league-best 29 touchdowns.

If you find yourself yelling for context on those numbers, I'm with you. I'd give the nod to either Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, or Lamar Jackson. Even Purdy thinks Christian McCaffrey should be this year's MVP. But voters likely aren't going to feel the same way. And maybe they're right.

Purdy maintaining his current production while leading the 49ers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs could very well wrap this thing up. At that point, we can discuss whether there's ever been a more surprising MVP winner.

Falcons gonna Falcon Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Every football fan knows what it's like to have your team let you down. Being so regularly disappointed that you can feel it coming is a little more of a unique experience. Nobody understands that quite like Falcons fans.

This team should, at the very least, be a fun one. Three consecutive first-round picks allocated to skill positions have given this offense an exciting core of playmakers. While you can argue with the value in a few of those selections, there's no denying the talent now in place.

With an offensive mind overseeing the operation, the Falcons should have no problem scoring points. Yet, here we are, with a 9-7 loss to the 1-12 Panthers handing Atlanta a devastating blow in the NFC playoff race.

How did the Falcons' first-round playmakers fair against the worst team in football? Glad you asked.

• Bijan Robinson: 7 carries, 11 yards, 1 catch, 3 yards
• Kyle Pitts: 3 catches, 37 yards
• Drake London: 2 catches, 24 yards

Atlanta's quarterback issues are part of the problem, as Desmond Ridder continues to be something of a roller coaster under center. But look around the league. Teams with less skill-position talent have managed to put points on the board with second-string, third-string, and, in some cases, street free-agent quarterbacks. What's Arthur Smith's excuse?

Following up last week's collapse with a pathetic performance in Carolina has caused Atlanta to go from NFC South favorite to playoff longshot in two weeks.

The coaching carousel is already shaping up to be a wild one, and the Falcons should probably consider getting involved. Eternal mediocrity can't be the standard.

Packers fooled us Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It really seemed like the Packers had turned the corner.

In fairness, how else were we supposed to interpret Green Bay racing back into the playoff picture with convincing victories over the Lions and Chiefs? Jordan Love had taken a major step in his development, and the offense was finally in sync after a rocky start to the season.

Two weeks later, the Packers have now seen their postseason chances all but disappear after consecutive losses to the Giants and Bucs. Go figure.

Love and the offense remain on an upward trajectory, but sustaining the recent magic was always going to be a big ask for this young group. Unfortunately for Green Bay, that was the only recipe for success if the defense couldn't do anything to get off the field.

Continued issues against the run allowed Tommy DeVito and Saquon Barkley to take over last week. The pass defense took a turn stinking it up in Sunday's loss to the Bucs as Baker Mayfield went off for 381 yards and four touchdowns.

That two-game disaster sums up the long-standing issues under defensive coordinator Joe Barry - it's always something. While the Packers have been notoriously patient when it comes to staff turnover, change is needed at season's end.

Quick slants

Texans grind one out

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

This team will not go away. The Texans would've had every excuse in the book if they couldn't get it done Sunday in Tennessee. Not only was Houston missing C.J. Stroud, but a rash of injuries also left the club without other key players on both sides of the ball. No matter. Case Keenum stepped up to lead the Texans to their eighth win, giving the injured players a chance to return and secure a playoff berth over the last few games. The Titans had to know that wearing their Oilers throwbacks against Houston was not going to end well.

Mahomes does his thing

The Chiefs have been working through some uncharacteristic issues in the scoring department this year. Every time we discuss their offensive shortcomings, we have no choice but to qualify any concerns with the Patrick Mahomes Clause. This week was another example of why. Bill Belichick threw everything he could at the Chiefs quarterback, and it didn't much matter who was out there with him. Mahomes was spectacular in the 27-17 win, connecting with seven different receivers en route to his first 300-yard day since Oct. 22. The Chiefs are always going to have a chance when they've got an all-time great under center.

Toney is unplayable

Speaking of the Chiefs' receivers, it's time to talk about Kadarius Toney. We're getting to a point where it really doesn't seem worth it to have the former first-round pick on the field. Toney added to his running list of critical mistakes this week with another dropped pass falling right into the arms of a defender for a completely avoidable interception. He's had some flashes in Kansas City, but it's starting to become clear why the Giants were content to move on when they did. There simply hasn't been enough good to outweigh the bad.

Waddle steps up

Tyreek Hill's absence this week created a fascinating test scenario for the Dolphins' offense. The logic in Hill's MVP candidacy is that he's the most valuable non-QB in the league. That may well be true, but Sunday's blowout win was a reminder that the offense is about much more than one player. Jaylen Waddle was up to the task as a high-volume No. 1 target without Hill, recording eight catches for 142 yards and one touchdown. It's been an up-and-down season for Waddle, but there isn't a defense in the league that can match up with the Dolphins' receivers when they're at their best.

Sweat paying off

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

I wasn't a fan of the Montez Sweat trade for Chicago. Surrendering an early second-round pick for a non-elite player on an expiring deal is generally bad business. You're effectively giving up a premium asset for the right to extend a player at market value. That said, the Bears have to be thrilled with the foundation piece they've added to their defensive front. Sweat dominated Sunday's game against the Browns, recording 2.5 sacks and seven tackles. He's now accumulated a 19.1% pressure rate since his arrival in Week 9, which is the NFL's fourth-highest mark over that stretch, according to NextGenStats. The Bears won't care what any of us nerds think about the trade value if he can maintain that kind of production.

Baker lights up Packers

Baker Mayfield settling for a 1-year, $4-million contract in Tampa Bay was a surefire sign that NFL teams had completely lost faith in his potential as a starter. After a rough two seasons, who could blame them? As it turns out, everyone wrote him off too soon. Mayfield has been the driving force as the Bucs take an NFC South lead into the stretch run. The veteran signal-caller was particularly outstanding in Sunday's upset win over the Packers, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns while posting a perfect passer rating for the first time in his career. Mayfield is setting himself up for a decent short-term deal as a starter. At this point, there's no reason to believe it won't be in Tampa Bay.

Flacco airing it out

Joe Flacco coming off the street and immediately giving the Browns an upgrade at quarterback is one hell of a storyline. While it seemed like the hype train was going to lose some steam early in Sunday's game against the Bears, a rough start merely served to set the stage for an incredible comeback. Flacco finished the day with 374 passing yards, including 212 in the fourth quarter alone. That's the most by a Browns quarterback in any quarter since at least 1991, according to John Breech of CBS Sports. Cleveland is going to be a fun playoff team with this kind of quarterback play complementing a relentless defense.

Brissett dunks on Howell

Sam Howell has had a rough season. Some continued struggles led to a benching in Sunday's loss to the Rams, and that gave us our first look at Jacoby Brissett in a Commanders uniform. Unsurprisingly, the offense was a completely different unit with the veteran signal-caller. Brissett needed only 10 passing attempts to top Howell's yardage output for the day and make things interesting with a pair of touchdowns. There's no point in sitting Howell now - the Commanders might as well use the last few games to evaluate him for the future. But it's fair to wonder whether this team could have been more competitive with Brissett under center all year.

Stat of the week

The Falcons went from a greater than 75% to a lower than 10% probability to win the division within 4.5 quarters.

- Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) December 17, 2023

MNF lookahead

Eagles vs. Seahawks

Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Eagles have some things to figure out. Consecutive blowout losses to the 49ers and Cowboys have highlighted some major issues on defense, and Philly responded by promoting Matt Patricia to replace Sean Desai as the play-caller. He'll have to work some magic to make up for some shortcomings at the second and third level of the defense. This game will be a good test for that group. Geno Smith is questionable, but Philly will have its hands full with the Seahawks receivers no matter who is under center. On the other side of things, a must-win situation against the defending NFC champs is a rough draw for Seattle. The Seahawks can't afford to drop any more games.

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