TNF best bets: Who to back with playoff hopes at stake in L.A.

While not the sexiest matchup, it's got to be better than last week. Especially for those of us on the 'dog. Woof.

Thank goodness for player props keeping us interested in the Chargers-Raiders game for far longer than we should have been, waiting for Easton Stick to, thankfully, clear his completions total.

With the Saints and Rams sitting at 7-7, you can look at the standings and see they're both in the mix for one of two NFC wild cards. Though no one's getting eliminated on Thursday night, this game will be crucial in determining which one of these teams has a better shot at making the postseason.

Saints @ Rams (-4, 46.5)

You'll hear things like "the Rams are 4-1 when Kyren Williams gets 20-plus carries," as if all a team has to do to win is hand the ball to their tailback 20 times. Handicapping any game with the Rams means you have to put the cart after the horse and figure out if L.A. can get into a situation where it gets Williams to 20-plus carries.

If the Rams can run the ball, everything follows suit for Matthew Stafford and Los Angeles. Here are the five opponents Williams received a heavy workload against, his rushing yardage, and how those rush defenses fare overall in terms of yards per carry allowed:

GAME	RUSH YARDS	YPC ALLOWED (Rank)
@IND (Week 4)	103	4.5*
ARI(Week 6)	158	4.5 (T-25th)
@ARI(Week 12)	143	4.5 (T-25th)
CLE (Week 13)	88	4.4**
@BAL (Week 14)	114	4.3 (T-18th)
WSH (Week 15)	152	4.5 (T-25th)

*Colts' YPC allowed during six games without run-stuffer DT Grover Stewart
**Browns' YPC allowed on the road

The Saints' rush defense ranks similarly to the opponents the Rams have succeeded against, allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season and 4.8 in their last three games. Stafford should get more room to work with his receivers, including an emergent Demarcus Robinson. New Orleans has managed to do OK against Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff, Bryce Young, and Tommy DeVito without Marshon Lattimore, but a thin secondary gets its toughest test on Thursday night.

On the surface, the Saints are a more appealing bet as an underdog than a favorite. However, after 11 games as one of the worst teams at converting red-zone trips into touchdowns (42.5%), they've converted at an absurd 90% rate in the last three games - all home games against three of the seven worst teams at red-zone defense on the road (Lions, Panthers, and Giants). Those results and the importance of this game might be what brought this line down to -4, but there's a better chance that what the Rams have done lately is replicable on Thursday night.

Pick: Rams (-4)

Alvin Kamara: Under 51.5 rushing yards

If we're bullish on Los Angeles to create a lead and stretch it out, this sets up as a difficult ground game for Kamara. Last year, when the Saints beat the Rams at home, he ran 12 times for 42 yards. Jamaal Williams has bit into Kamara's snap share. The Saints ran the ball just six times in the first half last week, and seven of Kamara's 16 carries came in the second half with a two-possession lead over the Giants. If Kamara gets 10 carries or fewer and is forced to be a factor in the passing game, he'll stay under this total.

Cooper Kupp: Anytime touchdown (+120)

With Williams healthy and lighting up fantasy leagues and Robinson scoring a touchdown in each game so far this December, there's a lot to like about the Rams' offense compared to the last time we saw it in prime time. In that Week 3 Monday night spot, Van Jefferson played every snap, and Kupp was still out.

Kupp's caught 22 passes in his last three games, showing that he's back from a midseason ankle injury that limited his ability to separate from defenders. He's never lost the connection with Stafford that made him better than an even-money bet to score before getting hurt last year, so at +120 or better, he's a good bet to find the end zone for a fourth straight game.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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