NFL Week 16 best bets: Holiday picks for a loaded 3-day slate

The 'dogs didn't bark, and the Cowboys couldn't stay within shouting distance of the Bills, so we gave some back in Week 15.

BET TYPE	RECORD (Net)
Best bets ATS	39-23-5(+13.8units)
Underdogs ATS	42-33(+5.8units)
Upset of the week	4-10 (-3.25 units)
Teaser/ML parlay	7-7 (-2.5units)

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

TEAM	SPREAD
Texans	+2.5
Vikings	+3
Cardinals	+4.5
Cowboys	+1.5
Ravens	+5

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Bengals @ Steelers (+3, 37.5)

We went against the prevalent market opinion that the Steelers would be primed for an outlier performance on the road last week. Mitch Trubisky supersedes any such hope.

While Mason Rudolph isn't getting you out of your favorite chair, there are some mismatches he can take advantage of without doing anything spectacular. Specifically, the Bengals' defense, already second-last against the rush and pass by yards per attempt, is now without their main cog in the middle, D.J. Reader.

Jake Browning got away with desperation tosses last week, and the Steelers have already seen him in action, holding the Bengals - now without Ja'Marr Chase - to just 222 yards. The Steelers' thin secondary depth is possibly what's stretched this line to -3, but with a game I have lined closer to pick'em, getting the full field goal turns this into a bet.

Pick: Steelers (+3)

Bills @ Chargers (+12.5, 43.5)

We don't like to put caveats in this space, but we have to advise you to wait until Saturday evening before holding your nose and clicking the button on the Chargers.

Double-digit underdogs that lost by 35-plus points the week prior are 19-4-1 against the spread in the last 20 years, according to Action Network. It's an easy-to-understand trend. No one wants the team that got blown out in near-historical fashion, the line (which I have as a fair price of -10.5) gets inflated, and the better club wins comfortably without covering a big number.

L.A. also has a significant rest advantage and an expectation that it'll respond to its coach getting fired, while the Bills are coming off an important win at home. The two teams should level off to where Buffalo wins but by less than two touchdowns.

Pick: Chargers (Wait and bet +13 or better)

Packers @ Panthers (+5, 36.5)

We called our shot for a second time on a Panthers win this season. However, having lived through every snap against the Falcons, we can acknowledge that any other opponent would have taken care of Carolina last week.

The Packers had a rough six days, but those two losses should have them fully focused on taking care of business against an inferior team. Atlanta's best work on offense came when it schemed open receivers against Carolina, something Green Bay excels at.

Pick: Packers (-5)

Commanders @ Jets (-3, 36.5)

Zach Wilson went from AFC Offensive Player of the Week to getting shut out in Miami and out with a concussion this week. Given how bad the Commanders are on defense, Trevor Siemian could be next in line for the penthouse, with trouble waiting for him in Cleveland in Week 17.

The Jets' defense held the Texans to 2.6 yards per play two weeks ago and can do the same to a Commanders' team whose biggest hope for an efficient offense is a spark from Jacoby Brissett as the clock counts down on Ron Rivera. Brian Robinson Jr. is also out again this week.

Pick: Jets (-3)

Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 42.5)

It's looking less and less likely that Trevor Lawrence will play. If that's the case, any point spread under a field goal needs to trigger a bet on the Buccaneers. Securing Tampa Bay under the key number of -3 means it wouldn't be a disaster even if Lawrence can go and the line shifts back to a pick'em.

The Bucs are quietly piling up well-earned wins as their offense has found a second dimension with Rachaad White and defensive adjustments with a shift in available personnel. Their three straight wins have come against below-average teams, but what about the Jaguars' last three games have shown that they're any better?

Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)

Player props

Let's do an express edition of the player props!

Jared Goff: Under 252.5 passing yards

The Vikings' defense blitzes Jared Goff at a high rate, and, as he has throughout his career, the signal-caller struggles to put up big numbers in Minnesota.

Drake London: Over 53.5 receiving yards

Taylor Heinicke didn't have Drake London available to him in his lone start-to-finish game this season. But the quarterback gets a shaky Colts' secondary at home this week and presumably a license to air it out with the season on the line.

DK Metcalf: Longest reception over 23.5 yards

Geno Smith started on Thanksgiving night with a sore elbow, and DK Metcalf had three catches for 33 yards and a long reception of 14 yards. In every other game since Week 4, Metcalf has recorded a catch longer than 23 yards, and the Titans' secondary isn't good.

Sam Howell: Under 213.5 passing yards

C.J. Stroud came into MetLife Stadium engulfed in flames two weeks ago, and the Jets' defense doused him, holding him to 91 yards passing. Can't they rough up Sam Howell, who risks getting benched again?

Semaje Perine: Over 13.5 receiving yards

With blustery conditions expected Sunday night, look for Russell Wilson to play it safe. That means check-downs to Samaje Perine on third downs and, hopefully, during the Broncos' two-minute offense.

Best 6-point teaser / Moneyline parlay

Colts +8.5 / Broncos -1 (-130)

The Falcons are just good enough to be favored against other "mid" teams (Packers, Texans, Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers) but not good enough to expect them to win those games by a significant margin. Atlanta was outgained the one time it did - beating New Orleans by nine.

I don't know that I believe it's the right move, but the Broncos have been bet up to -7. Let's ask Denver to merely win a snow game on Christmas Eve rather than hoping for Wilson to come down the chimney with the gift of a dominant victory.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.