NFL Christmas Day best bets: Santa's tripleheader

Santa came down the chimney and left three presents for NFL bettors. One is a new sweater that resembles one you've previously been gifted. Another is a book you didn't ask for. Maybe you'll consume it, maybe not. Just when it looks like another forgettable Christmas, football's version of a shiny 10-speed bike is on the other side of the tree.

Amid a stretch of the season when they weren't playing well, the Chiefs went to Las Vegas and spotted the Raiders 14 points before scoring 31 of the next 34 points to cover -9.5 comfortably. A win in New England isn't enough to make many believe Kansas City is back, but this line is almost the same with the Chiefs at home than when they were on the road in Week 12 versus the Raiders.

Both teams racked up 6.2 yards per play in that first meeting, more than the Chiefs (5.6) and Raiders (4.8) have averaged this season and higher than their defenses have allowed. With both defenses playing well, if Kansas City doesn't take a pair of big punches from Las Vegas early, we should see a game played closer to the vest on both sides.

Pick: Under 41

Isiah Pacheco: Under 63.5 rushing yards

Pacheco should be back after missing two weeks with a shoulder injury, but is it necessary for the Chiefs to overdo it with their difference-making tailback? Clyde Edwards-Helaire did well filling in for Pacheco while he was gone, and the Raiders held Pacheco to 3.7 yards per carry in the previous meeting. Even a sizeable workload for Pacheco might result in the under cashing here.

Rashee Rice: Anytime touchdown (+120 or better)

Rice went from moderately-used rookie, getting 50-60% of the snaps, to the main guy on the Chiefs' offense. He posted season-high snap shares over the last two weeks and recorded 38 targets across the previous four games. Rice also scored in three of those four contests, while his 84.2% catch rate over that stretch puts him head and shoulders above the rest of Kansas City's pass-catchers.

The 2022 Eagles had a pretty cozy schedule. They got the Lions (Week 1) and Jaguars (Week 4) before each turned a corner. The Cowboys came to town without Dak Prescott. They beat another playoff team - the eventually proven fraudulent Vikings - in Week 2. A 13-3 record and an inflated rating came with it, and I doubt last year's Philadelphia team would have achieved the same high regard had they seen a gauntlet that included Dallas (twice), Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Francisco.

The good news is that the run of rough matchups is over now. If the Eagles are anywhere close to how they've been thought of, with the full attention of the locker room that comes with a losing streak, they should do what they did to the Giants last year - crush them.

The market has bet this up from an opening line of -10.5 to -13.5, so there are no bargains here. However, you can't ignore Philadelphia beating New York in three games in 2022 by a cumulative score of 108-45 and 68-7 in the first half, all within six weeks of each other at a point when the Giants were playing as well as they had in years.

Maybe you argue that Philadelphia isn't as good, but the point of the first paragraph is that it might be and that the schedule hurt its perception the same way last year's helped. Moreover, Tommy DeVito is a significant downgrade to Daniel Jones. He'll likely get sacked on command against an Eagles defensive line that should get the jump on the Giants' snap at home.

Pick: Eagles (-13.5)

Saquon Barkley: Under 55.5 rushing yards

Barkley's production has largely come in the second half. He was held in check at halftime in wins at the Commanders and against the Packers, only to explode late. With a per-carry average of 2.9 yards before halftime and 5.5 after the break, I don't expect Barkley to have a chance to get his usual yardage boost in a game that might be out of reach.

Quez Watkins: Anytime touchdown (+500 or better)

Let's sprinkle a long-shot touchdown in hopes of a Christmas miracle. Quez Watkins has played over 50% of the snaps in the last three weeks, so he may score organically. Not being on the level of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith means he could get extra targets in garbage time.

You know we already like the Ravens' chances to stay with the 49ers in a game with a spread that suggests San Francisco would be favored by more than a field goal over anyone it may face in the Super Bowl.

Maybe the NFC is worth a buy at -120 in "Conference to win the Super Bowl" markets. Or perhaps dominant wins over mediocre teams and a big revenge game in Philadelphia have inflated this number toward the 49ers.

Lamar Jackson is a different problem than San Fran has needed to solve this year, and the Ravens' bruising ground game could have some success if Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave aren't fully healthy. Extending long clock-chewing drives and converting those into points should keep this game close, and all it will take is for Baltimore's defense to force turnovers akin to when the Bengals won in San Francisco before this scorching stretch.

Pick: Ravens (+6)

Christian McCaffrey: Under 84.5 rushing yards

Blasphemy! Betting against McCaffrey is like taking the lord of fantasy football's name in vain. If there's a better linebacker duo outside of this game in the NFL, I don't know it. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen should be singularly focused on not giving up massive gains. And if this game's close late, the 49ers can't run McCaffrey repeatedly in the hopes of killing the clock like they do in contests when they're up by two-plus scores.

Lamar Jackson: Anytime touchdown (+180)

It's been seven games since Jackson ran for a touchdown. The Ravens' MVP candidate can still score from a distance if there's a breakdown in run defense, but look for Jackson to put it on his shoulders near the goal line in this high-profile showdown.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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