The Guardian view on a second Trump presidency: things could only get worse

Over the holidays, this column will explore next year's urgent issues. Today we look at the danger posed by the former president's bid for reelection

The great spectre haunting 2024 is the threat of Donald Trump triumphing in November's election. A second stint in the Oval Office would have grim repercussions for the US and the world. He dominates the Republican race for the presidential candidacy, while recent polls showed him beating Joe Biden in five of the six key battleground states, and besting the president on issues including the economy and national security. The Biden administration has overseen a striking economic recovery in tough global conditions, but voters don't feel the improvement. The president's handling of the war in Gaza is alienating core supporters. He inspires littleenthusiasm.

Democrats point out that there's a long way to go and that November's off-year election results point to a brighter picture. Mr Trump faces a dizzying array of legal cases, though the most significant may not move to a trial before the election. While they boost the belief of diehard admirers that he is being persecuted, some supporters say he should not stand if convicted. It's not impossible that he might run from a prison cell.