NFL regular-season futures market recap: Who came through in 2023?
We rang in the new year days ago, but it's worth looking back at which players and teams came through by winning us, their backers, money in 2023.
Best/worst recordBest record: Ravens (+1200)
Once they stopped giving away late leads (Colts, Steelers, Browns), the Ravens stopped losing altogether. Baltimore cashed futures tickets for its bettors without them having to wait around to see if the AFC's No. 1 seed would translate into a Super Bowl appearance.
Worst record: Panthers (+2000)
It became clear early that nothing was going to work in Carolina. Amazingly, the Panthers never had a fourth-quarter lead all season, perhaps making it even more amazing that they even won two games.
We were in great shape for the 49ers (+800) to finish with the best record, and then Christmas happened. However, having a +800 bet riding on a 6-point favorite at home is always worth making. The Colts were far from the league's worst team, but it's somewhat humorous that they had shorter odds than Carolina.
Division winnersNFC East: Cowboys (+185)
The Cowboys took the most circuitous route to a win. While those of us who bought Dallas before the season are thrilled to cash this ticket thanks to the Eagles' collapse, these were the only NFC division winner odds that got longer during the campaign.
NFC North: Lions (+140)
Anointing the Lions the clear-cut favorites seemed like a stretch; who knows what might have happened had Kirk Cousins not been lost for the season. But Detroit came through for those whose faith was unwavering.
NFC South: Buccaneers (+900)
The long shot of the conference, the Buccaneers took advantage of what was correctly predicted to be the league's ugliest division. When no team is good, it's always worth taking the one with the longest odds.
NFC West: 49ers (-165)
It was a high price to pay, but there were only roughly 15 seconds all season where the -165 price on the 49ers didn't feel like a great bet.
We'll take two of four any time, especially when one of our picks is a 9-1 shot.
AFC East: Bills (+125)
What a run by the Bills to win their last five and steal their fourth AFC East title in a row. But their odds got to near-astronomical levels to track down the Dolphins, begging the question - was the stress worth it for preseason backers?
AFC North: Ravens (+225)
It's easy to forget that the Ravens weren't the favorites for the division before the season, but Joe Burrow's injury certainly paved the way.
AFC South: Texans (+900)
Unlike the Bucs, who were in the mix all along, the Texans snuck into the division lead at the last moment thanks to the Jaguars' epic collapse.
AFC West: Chiefs (-190)
What else is new?
The Ravens largely negated three other misses in the AFC, which is fine considering our work in the NFC. However, Miami (+300) was too good of a bet to lose. The Dolphins being underdogs at home to the Bills in the finale was tough for those hoping to hedge before the game.
Make/miss the playoffsBiggest winner: Texans (+500), Buccaneers (+380), Rams (+290)
Two division winners (Houston and Tampa Bay) were among the three least likely teams to make the playoffs (the Cardinals were the longest shot). The Rams were the one wild-card team to make it at longer than +200 odds.
Biggest loser: Bengals (+210), Saints (+140)
The Bengals have a ready-made excuse for not making the playoffs - no Joe Burrow in the toughest division. But what's the Saints' excuse? New Orleans was the fourth most likely team to make the postseason.
A 3-3 record amounted to just shy of a one-unit win. In retrospect, the die was cast on the Seahawks when they lost at home to the Rams in Week 1. The Bills came close enough to missing the playoffs to validate fading them, and a "miss the playoffs" ticket set up a freeroll on them to make the playoffs at massive odds if you had faith in a turnaround.
Highest-/lowest-scoring teamHighest-scoring team: Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
The Cowboys made up more than the 11 points they needed to track down the Dolphins to lead the league in points for the second time in three years. Let's remember in August to look at Week 18 matchups to find an edge via who might be able to run it up in the season finale.
The Lions were given the sixth-shortest odds and finished fifth. Insert shoulder-shrug emoji here.
Lowest-scoring team: Patriots (+1600)/Panthers (+1400)
All it took for the Panthers to "catch" the Patriots for the fewest points was for Carolina to score no points in its last two games. An incredible feat.
Full disclosure - it never occurred to me that we won a split payout with the Panthers until well after the games were played Sunday. Moreover, the bet didn't win (the Jets had the fourth-fewest points), but predicting Aaron Rodgers' injury was something.
Regular-season win totalsOvers vs. Unders
Season win totals went 15-17 to the over this season. The two top teams - the Chiefs and Eagles - went under. Three of the four teams with the lowest totals cleared their number, although Matt Prater's missed field goal at the death prevented the Cardinals from making it 4/4.
At 3-6, we gave some back in the regular-season wins markets.
Player passing marketsPassing yardage: Tua Tagovailoa (+1800)
With a 466-yard game in Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa was always among the leaders. A bet on him to stay healthy paid off.
Passing touchdowns: Dak Prescott (+1800)
This was a wilder ride, but a 20-touchdown midseason stretch in six games put Dak Prescott among the leaders. His edge going into Week 18 allowed for a bonus freeroll winner on Jordan Love over 1.5 touchdowns.
This is where we cooked, hitting both Tagovailoa and Prescott for 36 units, minus a pair of units on also backing Prescott in yardage and the presumptive MVP, Lamar Jackson, in touchdowns.
Player receiving marketsReceiving yardage: Tyreek Hill (+850)
Tyreek Hill didn't reach his goal of 2,000 receiving yards, but if you reach for the moon, sometimes you're enough of a star to cash a season-long player prop. Justin Jefferson's injury helped open the door as well.
Receiving touchdowns: Tyreek Hill (+1400)/Mike Evans (+4000)
Mike Evans tracked down and passed Hill late in the season with a seven-game stretch of eight touchdowns. However, Hill tied him in Week 18 after Evans didn't score in the season's final two contests.
More cooking for us here with Hill to have the most yards, and having CeeDee Lamb made it sweat-free. We added Evans midseason at +1400 and caught a split of that, along with Hill to score an anytime touchdown against the Bills in Week 18.
Player rushing marketsRushing yardage: Christian McCaffrey (+3000)
Hindsight being 20/20, Christian McCaffrey's odds of winning the rushing title were shocking. You couldn't have had an easier 30-1 season-long winner after McCaffrey started the season with 467 yards in four games.
Rushing touchdowns: Raheem Mostert (+4000)
McCaffrey seemingly scored in every game but still didn't lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I'm actually surprised how short the odds were for Raheem Mostert to have the most touchdowns given his age and expected number of carries.
Not great, Bob. We went long-shot hunting, but David Montgomery (+6000) missed three games. Mostert's outrageous 18-score season also took Montgomery out of it even though he averaged just under a touchdown per contest.
All in all, though, who would complain with a net win of 52 units from our NFL season preview series in August and the midseason portfolio review?
Game-by-game bettingThis ends a profitable year in individual game betting as well. Looking back at what we did well and what we can improve on is key to becoming a better bettor.
| BET TYPE | RECORD | PROFIT/LOSS (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Best bets ATS | 44-28-5 | +15.2 |
| Teaser/MLP | 8-8 | -3.0 |
| Upset of the week | 5-10 | -1.75 |
| RUMP | 6-11* | +8.5 |
| RUMP ATS | 45-40 | +1.0 |
| Sunday player props | 83-77 | -1.4 |
| TNF best bet | 8-8 | -0.8 |
| TNF player props | 8-10 | -3.6 |
| TNF anytime TD | 6-9 | +7.4 |
| MNF best bet | 13-6-1 | +6.4 |
| MNF player props | 13-7 | +4.0 |
| MNF anytime TD | 10-10 | +5.0 |
| TOTAL | +37.05 |
*Winning weeks (3-2 or better)
ATS: Against the spread
MLP: Moneyline parlay
RUMP: Round-robin underdog moneyline parlay
A winning rate of 57.2% (110-82-6) on spreads and totals is right in line with reasonable season-long goals, and staying under 200 of the 272 games represents high volume without going overboard. Less success on Thursday nights compared to Mondays might be a function of the teams' predictability on short rest versus long rest.
Throughout the season, we try to promote the process around sports betting while managing wins and losses on the bankroll. However, it's nice to put a bow on a regular season where those wins have outweighed the losses to a lucrative degree, leaving more than enough wiggle room for the coming playoffs.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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