Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Eagles-Buccaneers

Wild Card Weekend concludes on Monday night and, for the second straight year, the final game is happening in Tampa Bay. Instead of Tom Brady versus the Cowboys, Baker Mayfield faces the Eagles, who are sputtering badly to end the season. But Philadelphia is still the favorite on the road.

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3, 43.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Eagles	60/100	-3
Buccaneers	43/100

A month ago, amidst a run in which they took on the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Cowboys again, the betting market rated the Eagles as a Super Bowl contender. Not anymore. The win over Buffalo required a small miracle kick, and the Eagles nearly coughed up a 20-3 halftime lead to the Giants in their lone win down the stretch. So is a rating drop to the level of the Lions or Browns far enough of a plunge?

Truthfully, we don't know what to expect from the Buccaneers on a week-to-week basis. Their 9-0 division-clinching win over the Panthers wasn't awe-inspiring, especially after getting beaten soundly at home by the Saints in their first attempt to secure another NFC South title.

Before we sell the Bucs, though, it's worth mentioning that the offense racked up 7.0 yards per play in that loss to the Saints' defense, which tied for ninth this season in yards per pass attempt. Tampa turned the ball over four times, unable to make up an early 14-0 deficit. While the win over Carolina was ugly, the Panthers at least boast a defense that was sixth in yards per play allowed but couldn't create turnovers (last in the NFL).

The Eagles couldn't create turnovers (seventh-worst in the league) and also allowed opponents to move the ball on a per-play basis (sixth-worst), so there's reason to believe that Mayfield and Co. won't get the resistance they did from good defenses.

When at their best the last few years, the Buccaneers excel at stopping the run. If they can slow the Eagles' run game and force Jalen Hurts to play in the pocket, the Bucs should join the Giants and Cardinals as teams to upset Philadelphia.

Pick: Buccaneers (+3)

Player props

Mike Evans: Over 67.5 receiving yards

No team gave up more receptions to wide receivers than the Eagles (14.9), and Mayfield is always willing to take deep shots down the field. Evans' game average this season was 73.8, which doesn't account for his preference for playing in Tampa Bay. Amazingly, he averaged 6.4 more yards per catch at home than on the road this season.

Chase Edmonds: Over 19.5 rushing+receiving yards

Chase Edmonds' rushing and receiving totals have amounted to 58, 13, 25, 56 and 24 in the final five games of the campaign. That's come with more opportunity, as he's played in 10+ snaps in each game and got five touches in four of them. Before that stretch, he was on the field for double-digit snaps just twice in eight games.

Jalen Hurts: Under 219.5 passing yards

Hurts - last seen with a finger bent the wrong way - didn't throw the ball in the Eagles' practices at the beginning of the week. Even before leaving the Giants' game early, Hurts was 2-6 to the over on his passing yardage total, which has coincided with the Eagles' free fall. Now A.J. Brown has been ruled out, which makes life even more difficult for Philly's quarterback.

Anytime touchdowns

Mike Evans (+125)

The 2023 co-leader in receiving touchdowns this season gets to face a secondary that's struggled mightily in the second half, and we're getting plus-money on Evans to score? We'll take that.

Cade Otton (+440)

Other than Mayfield, no one was on the field for the Bucs more than Cade Otton this season, and he's got four touchdowns for his troubles. Having scored in three of 17 games, fair odds might be +468, but that doesn't account for the Eagles' pass defense, who will be keeping a close eye on Evans in the red zone.

Kenneth Gainwell (+500)

Gainwell hasn't scored since early November, so his odds are appropriately long. But given the trust he's earned in Philadelphia and D'Andre Swift's odds (+155), he's worth a bet with this kind of payout.

Mega-long-shot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same-game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting but, for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

PARLAY+
Buccaneers moneyline
Over 40.5 total points
Cade Otton: Anytime TD
Kenneth Gainwell: Anytime TD
Mike Evans: Over 3.5 REC
Baker Mayfield: Over 1.5 pass TD
+10000

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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