Dare to fade Golden Knights at home? 3 plays for busy MLK Day slate
A busy weekend proved that the Canucks are still a wagon that's not to be trifled with, no matter the perceived value in fading Vancouver.
Meanwhile, the Rangers and Capitals split a home-and-home, and almost all of the underdogs fell short. The exceptions were the Flyers toppling the NHL's top team at the time and the Red Wings guiding Maple Leafs fans down their 12th downward spiral of the season.
These results, among others from the weekend, may inform an unusually busy Monday.
The cheat sheetIf you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| NJD@BOS | 40.6/59.4 | NJD +173/BOS -141 |
| SJS@BUF | 34.3/65.7 | SJS +230/BUF -183 |
| ANA@FLA | 28.8/71.2 | ANA +304/FLA -236 |
| VAN@CBJ | 52.8/47.2 | VAN -108/CBJ +132 |
| LAK@CAR | 45.0/55.0 | LAK +144/CAR -117 |
| SEA@PIT | 43.0/57.0 | SEA +156/PIT -127 |
| NYI@MIN | 43.4/56.6 | NYI +154/MIN -125 |
| NSH@VGK | 51.4/48.6 | NSH +105/VGK +117 |
| COL@MTL | 58.6/41.4 | COL -136/MTL +168 |
| PHI@STL | 45.5/54.5 | PHI +141/STL -115 |
The Wild went 1-6 without Kirill Kaprizov. The return of Minnesota's top scorer Saturday still didn't help the team as the Wild lost 6-0 at home to the Coyotes.
Why is that a good thing for Minnesota's chances Monday night?
For starters, the Wild's market rating has dipped to a similar level as when Kaprizov was out, thus increasing their value for a wager. More interestingly, nothing motivates professional athletes more than humiliation. The quotes that came from the Wild's locker room after Saturday's fiasco suggest we can expect their best effort here. Minnesota also gets a chance to send a message to the home crowd against the Islanders, who themselves are 3-6 since the Christmas break.
Pick: Wild (-115)
Predators (+105) @ Golden Knights (-125)How low can we go with the Golden Knights' rating?
Jack Eichel joined William Karlsson, William Carrier, Shea Theodore, and a trio of goaltenders on the team's injury list, and Vegas lost 3-1 to the Flames on Saturday. That matchup was almost a pick'em at T-Mobile Arena, signaling that the Golden Knights' market rating has tumbled. Add Chandler Stephenson to the walking wounded, and you're left with Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault as the only players with more than a half-point per game.
Since edging the Sharks and Flames at home in mid-December, Vegas is 4-9. Additionally, the Predators are better on the road than at home. They have the fourth-best five-on-five expected goals share in the league away from Nashville and an 11-8 record to go with it.
Pick: Predators (+105)
Flyers (-105) @ Blues (-115)The Blues haven't exactly dominated since firing Craig Berube, but their results since Dec. 12 have been very similar to Philadelphia's.
| TEAM | RECORD | xG% |
|---|---|---|
| Flyers | 8-8 | 46.0% |
| Blues | 8-6 | 46.1% |
It looks even better for the Blues when you break it down to home/road splits. They have a 50% expected goals share on home ice, while the Flyers are 44.8% at even strength on the road.
If you look at these two clubs as equals at this point in the season, there's even more value on the home team at nearly a pick'em.
Pick: Blues (-115)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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