Divisional round: A high-scoring game shapes the best bets for GB-SF

While the Cowboys experience the offseason hand-wringing we suggested could be in the cards last week, the Packers are going to San Francisco. What waits for the Cheeseheads, though, is a 49ers team that's rated in the betting marketplace as historically great, with a point spread that reflects that.

Packers @ 49ers (-9.5, 50.5)

TEAM	RATING	PROJECTED LINE
Packers	54
49ers	84	-10

The Packers' showing in Dallas - and, presumably, the stellar play of Jordan Love from November onward - has resulted in some interest in Green Bay as an opening line of 49ers -10 has ticked down to -9.5.

The 49ers are an easy team to prepare for - you know what they'll do. But they're a brutal team to play against. With their wide-ranging talent and precise offensive movements, you can't stop them even when you know what's coming. However, they haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks - will that hurt their precision?

There's hope for the Packers' defense. Green Bay came into Dallas as healthy as it had been all season and disrupted the Cowboys enough to take an early lead, expand it, and then hold on. It's hard to imagine everything that went the team's way last week will again Saturday.

The only time San Francisco has come up shy of 27 points since its midseason losing streak (except its meaningless finale) was against the Ravens' league-leading defense. With four touchdowns as the probable floor for the 49ers' scoring, the Packers must keep up.

Only the Chiefs and Bills have allowed a lower sack percentage than Green Bay (4.75%), and Love's been sacked just twice in his last four games. That's come in conjunction with Aaron Jones' return to health, which has shown how important he is to the Packers' offense. Jones made it four straight games with 110-plus rushing yards.

If you're judging the Packers by the totality of a season where they pieced together personnel on defense and ran an inefficient offense without a threatening run game, you'll easily side with the powerhouse 49ers. However, this version of Green Bay's offense might be in the early stages of being a top unit in the league. Given time, Love can exploit the closest thing San Francisco has to a weakness - its secondary - enough to stay within shouting distance.

Pick: Packers (+10, -120)
Over 50.5 (-110)

Player props

Aaron Jones: Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards

The point spread suggests San Francisco will take the Packers out of their run game. But Green Bay is more likely to have more first-half possessions because the team has shown a willingness to take the ball first if it wins the coin toss. That might be enough to keep the Packers in touch with the 49ers and thus provide a steady diet of the toss plays that Jones excels at.

San Francisco's run defense was ranked outside the top 10 in yards per carry allowed with a defensive line that's scarier for quarterbacks. Probably because of that pass rush, the 49ers allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs. Jones will provide a capable relief valve for Love.

Brock Purdy: Under 30.5 pass attempts

Brock Purdy's had more than 30 attempts in one game since the start of November - the loss to Baltimore - and just three times all season. As good as Purdy's been, the 49ers still rely on a dangerous running game. They scheme players open well enough to hit pass plays down the field while limiting the number of Purdy's dropbacks.

Luke Musgrave: Under 19.5 receiving yards

One of the indicting moments for the Cowboys last week was Luke Musgrave fielding a 38-yard touchdown like a punt because he was so wide-open. Outside of that one play, Musgrave - in his second game back from a lacerated kidney - played only 15 snaps compared to fellow rookie Tucker Kraft's 45. Josiah Deguara and Ben Sims played 23 snaps, and as blocking tight ends, they'll likely be used even more frequently Saturday to help slow the Niners' pass rush and open holes for Jones.

Anytime touchdowns

Christian Watson (+375)
Bo Melton (+550)

For betting purposes, Christian Watson and Bo Melton might as well be considered the same entity. Watson returned from a hamstring injury against Dallas and was lightly used, playing most of his snaps in the red zone. Melton was used between the 20s, with his speed the better option for deep shots. With five receivers playing between 22 and 39 snaps last week, we'll play the two longest odds of the group and hope at least one cashes.

Tucker Kraft (+500)

As we mentioned above, Kraft had more snaps than Musgrave by a ratio of 3-to-1. Yet his odds to score are longer than Musgrave's despite Kraft receiving six targets in four of the final six games while Musgrave was out.

George Kittle (+125)

If Kyle Shanahan, as he said, became more focused on preparing for the Packers halfway through the second quarter of their game Sunday, he likely noticed Jake Ferguson recording three touchdowns on 10 catches against Green Bay's defense. The Packers have been vulnerable to long gains by opposing tight ends this season.

Elijah Mitchell (+550)

Elijah Mitchell showed he's the 49ers' definitive No. 2 tailback during the final two games of the season. There's a 29.4% chance San Francisco's backup runner scores in a given game - Mitchell scored twice to close the season, while Jordan Mason had three scores while he was hurt. Since +550 is an implied win probability of 15.4%, there's a mathematical edge on Mitchell at this long-shot price.

Mega-long-shot SGP

We came close with a couple of our low-investment, high-yield lottery tickets last week. For the divisional-round matchups, we'll use a theme to build a Same-Game Parlay.

"Points, points, points"

PARLAY+
Packers +12.5
Over 57.5 points
Aaron Jones: Anytime TD
George Kittle: Anytime TD
Deebo Samuel: Anytime TD
Aaron Jones: Over 64.5 rush yds
Brock Purdy: Under 30.5 pass ATT
+9900

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.