Best bets for Hockey Day in Canada
All seven Canadian teams are in action as those north of the border celebrate the game of hockey approximately 7% more than they do on a daily basis. "Hockey Day in Canada" honors those who wake up early or stay up late for ice time and parents who strap skates to kids' feet who haven't yet mastered walking.
For others, specifically bettors, not much changes. Saturdays in the winter are always busy picking out percentage points of value among an extensive card.
The cheat sheetIf you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| TBL@BUF | 45.2/54.8 | TBL +143/BUF -116 |
| COL@PHI | 54.4/45.6 | COL -115/PHI +141 |
| NSH@ARI | 50.3/49.7 | NSH +109/ARI +112 |
| WPG@OTT | 47.5/52.5 | WPG +122/OTT +100 |
| MTL@BOS | 36.8/63.2 | MTL +205/BOS -164 |
| TOR@VAN | 50.9/49.1 | TOR +106/VAN +115 |
| DAL@NJD | 56.6/43.4 | DAL -125/NJD +154 |
| WSH@STL | 46.9/53.1 | WSH +133/STL -109 |
| PIT@VGK | 58.4/41.6 | PIT -135/VGK +166 |
| ANA@SJS | 48.7/51.3 | ANA +116/SJS +105 |
| EDM@CGY | 53.6/46.4 | EDM -111/CGY +136 |
| NYR@LAK | 43.2/56.8 | NYR +155/LAK -126 |
We'll start with an upset to begin the day. The Jets are the better team, and the metrics since changing coaches don't look good for the Senators. But that's reflected in the odds.
The Jets haven't played since Tuesday and open a road trip in Ottawa, with the club heading to Toronto and Boston next. A Saturday afternoon puck drop might be a sleepy spot for Winnipeg. But just because it's HDIC, it doesn't mean the start time is unfamiliar for the Sens. They regularly host Saturday matinees and have a disproportionate number of their wins coming from the time slot. With a 52.7% xG share at home, the best chance for a surprise comes early Saturday, a stone's throw from Canada's capital.
Pick: Senators (+125)
Maple Leafs (+110) @ Canucks (-130)Betting the Canucks as massive underdogs over the Maple Leafs had been a good bet for years. However, the tables have turned. Toronto is a rare underdog in Vancouver as TV interests bump up the start time by three hours, and eastern transplants get to see their dad's favorite team live.
The sky has been falling back east, but the Leafs are dangerous. Toronto has a better high-danger chance percentage at even strength than the league-leading Canucks, and it ranks fifth in that category since the Christmas break. Despite ultimately losing, third-period leads over the Avalanche and Oilers in recent games are still objectively positive signs. At an underdog price, it's worth betting that Auston Matthews, and the Leafs' other stars, take advantage of whatever chances Vancouver gives up, having calmed the naysayers ever so slightly after his hat trick in a comeback win in Calgary.
Pick: Maple Leafs (+110)
Penguins (-120) @ Golden Knights (+100)The Golden Knights have won back-to-back games. Mark Stone's hat-trick heroics pushed his club over the Predators in that first contest. And despite generating only a handful of even-strength high-danger chances in the second game, Vegas scored three goals to topple the Rangers. However, the Golden Knights are still missing key pieces, and the market seems to think that's no longer a big deal.
With Sidney Crosby making a run at the most goals he's scored since 2009-10 - his lone 50-goal season - the veteran-laden Penguins appear ready to make a playoff push. Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the league in even-strength xG% and high-danger chances since Christmas. Two overtime losses against good teams - Vancouver and Carolina - have kept the Penguins under the radar, but, at the moment, they're the better team in this matchup.
Pick: Penguins (-120)
Rangers (+105) @ Kings (-125)Timing is everything. We thought the Rangers might not be playing well enough to warrant big favorite odds earlier in the week against Seattle, but New York took advantage of the wounded Kraken. The Rangers couldn't do the same Thursday in Vegas, a sign they've got more issues than meet the eye.
Speaking of which, the Kings are amid a cratering of their own, going 1-10 in their last 11 games. That record wouldn't look as bad had L.A. done better in two categories: overtime/shootouts (0-4) and converting even-strength high-danger chances.
The Kings converted just eight of 118 high-danger chances at even strength since the Christmas break. Only the Blackhawks, Sharks, Blues, and Sabres have scored fewer than that, but none generated as many as 100 high-danger chances. Los Angeles' season will turn around if it keeps getting opportunities (sixth-most since Dec. 25). Ideally, that starts Saturday night.
Pick: Kings (-125)
Sunday cheat sheetWith six games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet them on Sunday.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| OTT@PHI | 46.8/53.2 | OTT +134/PHI -109 |
| MIN@CAR | 40.6/59.4 | MIN +173/CAR -140 |
| TBL@DET | 44.7/55.3 | TBL +146/DET -119 |
| DAL@NYI | 43.2/56.8 | DAL +155/NYI -126 |
| NYR@ANA | 56.6/43.4 | NYR -125/ANA +154 |
| TOR@SEA | 44.4/55.6 | TOR +148/SEA -120 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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