Back red-hot Caufield to exploit struggling Senators on Tuesday

We have a busy nine-game slate ahead of us on Tuesday night, which means there is no shortage of value to comb through.

Let's take a closer look at a few of my favorite player props.

Alex DeBrincat: Over 2.5 shots

DeBrincat has some of the most extreme home splits you will see. He has registered at least three shots on goal in 17 of 23 games on home ice, good for a whopping 74% success rate. That number drops to 43% when playing on the road.

He was recently taken off the top line and power play, but it may prove to be beneficial, as Dylan Larkin is a high-volume shooter who matches up against the stiffest competition on a nightly basis.

Getting DeBrincat away from Larkin means there's more puck to go around. It will also help him avoid Dallas' new-look top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston, which has completely dominated teams thus far.

He should instead see plenty of the second line featuring Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin. They are talented but much more susceptible to conceding shots and scoring chances.

Look for DeBrincat to make the most of his cushy usage at home.

Odds: -134 (playable to -150)

Cole Caufield: Over 3.5 shots

Caufield enters this game firing on all cylinders. He has scored a goal in five consecutive games and, despite being a player who is normally matchup-dependent, registered at least four shots against top-tier teams like the Oilers and Bruins.

Now Caufield finds himself in a great spot at home against a bottom-feeding Senators team. Caufield has fared much better in Montreal this season, posting a hit rate 13% higher than on the road.

He has also routinely feasted against teams on the outside of a playoff spot. The Senators certainly qualify, as they sit 29th in the NHL and have struggled mightily on the defensive side of the puck.

Caufield faced the Senators a couple of games ago and registered four shots on nine attempts. That is very strong volume, especially considering the game was on the road and Montreal couldn't control matchups.

With Caufield red hot, and at home against a weak defensive team, the stars are aligning for another strong offensive performance.

Odds: -110 (playable to -135)

Artemi Panarin: Over 3.5 shots

This one is pretty cut and dry. Panarin has averaged four shots per game this season on a hair under eight attempts. He consistently generates strong volume and often gets the job done, no matter the opponent.

It just so happens that Panarin has the juiciest matchup he could ask for against the basement-dwelling Sharks, who have bled shots all season long and rank dead last in shot suppression on the year. They will have a miserable time slowing Panarin down, be it at even strength or on the power play.

Fatigue could be a factor as well. The Sharks played a high-event overtime game against the Kings on Monday night and now have a quick turnaround against one of the league's better teams.

This is also an important game for New York, who stumbled a bit of late, winning just four of its last 10 games. Its lead atop the Metro Division is shrinking, so the team can't afford to take the Sharks lightly and squander this opportunity.

I expect the Rangers to pile up the shots from start to finish with Panarin at the forefront of the action.

Odds: -118 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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