AFC championship: The 10 best prop bets for Chiefs-Ravens

We broke down the AFC championship from a macro perspective, but for games of this magnitude, a more detailed overview of the best available prop bets is required. With a stellar betting postseason so far, there's no reason not to dive deeper into the menu in preparation for the biggest game of them all in two weeks.

BET TYPE	PLAYOFF RECORD
Player Props	16-10
Anytime TD	13-22
Profit/Loss	+31.5 units

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5, 44.5)Game props

Highest-scoring half: First half (-115)

Like all opponents of the Ravens, the Chiefs' best chance in Baltimore is to get an early lead. Kansas City is sixth in first-half scoring but 27th in the second half. The Chiefs will need to jump on the Ravens' defense with Andy Reid's game plan before Baltimore can make adjustments.

Assuming the favored Ravens have a second-half lead, we should see them manufacture long drives with their punishing ground game. Baltimore had two consecutive seven-minute possessions once Lamar Jackson had tired the Texans' defense.

Player props

Patrick Mahomes: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115)

The Chiefs scored touchdowns on only 52.1% of their trips inside the 20 (19th in the NFL) this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense isn't likely to surrender long-distance scores.

Starting in late November, Kansas City found success converting from inside the 5-yard line with Isiah Pacheco. That strategy resulted in Mahomes throwing for fewer than two touchdowns in four of his last five regular-season games. Mecole Hardman's fumbled jet sweep at the goal line last week should serve as a warning for the Chiefs to keep it simple.

Justin Watson: Over 13.5 receiving yards

Kansas City ran well, Travis Kelce got open enough, Marquez Valdes-Scantling made two catches, and the Chiefs punted just once in Buffalo. The Ravens are plotting to stop Pacheco, be physical with Kelce, and have eyes on Rashee Rice, so Justin Watson should see at least two targets. He reached that mark in eight of the previous nine games Mahomes played in. One catch might be enough to clear a total as low as we've seen all season for Watson.

Mark Andrews: Over 35.5 receiving yards

We'll never get a yardage total this low for Mark Andrews again, so we might as well bet that he's back. We're relying on Andrews' chemistry with Jackson even if he plays fewer snaps than he's accustomed to.

Lamar Jackson: Under 28.5 pass attempts

Ideally, Jackson will be more efficient rather than a high-volume passer. His attempts have been lined this high because it's assumed Baltimore will be in a close, back-and-forth game. However, we might not get that, and Jackson's more likely to take off and run in the playoffs rather than throw it away.

Gus Edwards: Over 41.5 rushing yards

Gus Edwards got to 40 yards against the Texans but got banged up on his first carry of Baltimore's penultimate drive. Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook ran for 52 combined yards as Edwards watched from the sideline. However, don't be alarmed by snap counts or carries. Edwards is the Ravens' top option to get the late workload with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Anytime touchdowns

Justin Watson (+600)
Noah Gray (+800)

Kelce and Pacheco are the most likely Chiefs to score, but why settle for the same payouts offered against a lesser defense last week?

Instead, we'll split a unit on a pair of long shots that combined for five touchdowns this season. Watson and Noah Gray play over 50% of snaps and are big-bodied targets who see single coverage in the red zone.

Gus Edwards (+140)

After scoring just five rushing touchdowns during the regular season, Jackson scampered into the end zone twice last week. With Steve Spagnuolo likely to drill his defense to hold the edge better than Houston did, the middle of the line should soften just enough for Edwards (13 regular-season touchdowns) to score.

Isaiah Likely (+400)

Andrews is back, so Isaiah Likely's anytime touchdown odds get longer with the assumption he'll see the field less. However, it's not like Andrews is returning to play a heavy snap share. Likely's proven he's a big target who'll fight for the ball in the air. He'll still be in the mix near the end zone with better than a 25% chance to score.

Nelson Agholor (+650)

Nelson Agholor won our long-shot bet last week (+550), being in the right place at the right time for a short score. He also had a front-row view of Likely's touchdown, proving he's on the field when the Ravens get close to pay dirt. We'd feel awfully foolish for not including him at longer odds than last week if he were to score Sunday.

Mega-long-shot SGP

Last week's 4-0 divisional round resulted in close calls for our low-investment long-shot sweat. We were a Sam LaPorta touchdown catch away from hitting one at better than 100-to-1. We'll keep using game handicaps - and a score prediction - to build a big Same-Game Parlay to try to turn a couple of dollars into a couple hundred.

"Ravens 27, Chiefs 17"

PARLAY+
Ravens -9.5
Under 44.5
Gus Edwards: Anytime TD
Travis Kelce: Over 5.5 recs
Justin Watson: Over 13.5 rec yds
Mark Andrews: Over 35.5 rec yds
Lamar Jackson: Under 28.5 pass atts
Gus Edwards: Over 41.5 rush yds
+10100

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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