NFC championship: The 8 best prop bets for Lions-49ers

We broke down the NFC championship from a macro perspective, but for games of this magnitude, a more detailed overview of the best available prop bets is required. With a stellar betting postseason so far, there's no reason not to dive deeper into the menu in preparation for the biggest game of them all in two weeks.

BET TYPE	PLAYOFFRECORD
Player Props	16-10
Anytime TD	13-22
Profit/Loss	+31.5 units

Lions @ 49ers (-7.5, 51.5)Game props

First Team Drive: 49ers - To Cross the 20-yard line (+110)

Be wary of Kyle Shanahan's opening script. Like most teams, the 49ers script their first 15 plays on offense. Unlike the rest of the NFL, San Francisco is awesome at doing it. The Packers probably took the ball first against San Fran because the 49ers were likely to score on their first drive.

San Francisco was forced to punt on its opening drive last week, but we'll chalk that up to a combination of rain and the team's layoff from having locked up the top seed in the NFC. In 18 opening drives this season, the 49ers failed to reach the red zone just three times (against Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia). They scored an outrageous 11 first-drive touchdowns. However, there isn't a huge difference between the odds for "first-drive touchdown (+150)" and getting the ball across the 20-yard line.

Total Game Sacks: Under 4.5 (+105)

For a group that features big names like Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Arik Armstead, and Javon Hargrave on its defensive line, the 49ers don't sack the quarterback as much as you'd expect. They're 20th in sack percentage, while the Lions are 22nd. Last week, Green Bay kept Jordan Love clean.

Jared Goff takes less than two sacks per contest, and Detroit's running game can keep San Francisco off-balance. He should be able to get the ball out in time to stay upright. Meanwhile, the 49ers will challenge the Lions' secondary to tackle by getting the ball out before Detroit's pass rush can get to Brock Purdy.

Player props

Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 22.5 receiving yards

Packers tailbacks Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson received seven targets against San Francisco but just missed some opportunities, including on the first play of the game. The Lions should deploy the same strategy with Jahmyr Gibbs, who's had 40-plus receiving yards in both playoff contests.

Brock Purdy: Over 29.5 pass attempts (-120)

We lost on the under on Purdy's attempts last week because Shanahan kept throwing the ball despite bad weather, Deebo Samuel was injured early, and Christian McCaffrey was healthy. Why would Shanahan slow Purdy down with a better weather forecast and a matchup against the Lions? They ranked 30th in yards per pass against this season and have given up over 700 yards passing during the playoffs.

Brandon Aiyuk: Longest reception over 28.5 yards

It's asking a lot of Brandon Aiyuk to clear a yardage total of 82.5 if Samuel plays. However, even if there's an extra weapon for Purdy, Aiyuk should be able to get free at least once against the Lions' secondary. Mike Evans got open deep last week, and Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell had big gains the week before.

Anytime touchdowns

David Montgomery (+155)

We may never know why, but Craig Reynolds swooped in and vultured a short-yardage goal-line touchdown from David Montgomery against the Buccaneers. Don't expect that to happen again, as Montgomery had touchdowns in four straight games before last week and 14 on the season. We'll expect him to be the battering ram in close Sunday.

Sam LaPorta (+165)

Win, lose, or draw, I might be betting on LaPorta to score in every game for the rest of his career until he's priced like Travis Kelce (at +125 or shorter). When LaPorta doesn't score, like last week, it won't be for lack of opportunity. The rookie tight end had nine receptions on 11 targets last week in his second game after a Week 18 knee injury, many of them off of lasers over the middle from Goff.

Jauan Jennings (+375)

I'm not worried about Jauan Jennings' snap share, regardless of Samuels' status Sunday. Chris Conley (25) and Ray-Ray McCloud (18) saw more snaps than they would've expected once Samuel went out against Green Bay, so Jennings should still come close to his 63% snap share if Deebo plays. If Deebo is held out, Jennings will be Purdy's No. 2 wide receiver. That would make +375 a valuable bet with Jennings running routes alongside Aiyuk (-110) and George Kittle (+120).

Mega-long-shot SGP

Last week's 4-0 divisional round resulted in close calls for our low-investment long-shot sweat. We would've hit one at better than 100-to-1 if it weren't for LaPorta's near-touchdown catch. We'll keep using game handicaps - and a score prediction - to build a big Same-Game Parlay to try to turn a couple of dollars into a couple hundred.

"49ers 31, Lions 24"

PARLAY+
Lions +7.5
Over 51.5
Sam LaPorta: Anytime TD
Jauan Jennings: Anytime TD
Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 8.5 rush att
Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 23.5 rec yds
Brock Purdy: Over 27.5 pass att
Christian McCaffrey: Under 97.5 rush yds
+9900

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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