NHL futures update: Oilers favored to win it all at the All-Star break
The NHL All-Star break is finally here and offers teams the opportunity to exhale and take stock of where they are.
Let's do the same and examine each division to see how the betting market is shaping up.
The Bruins keep chugging along. Due to retirement and cap constraints, they had to move on from Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Dmitry Orlov, among others, last summer. Surprisingly, Boston hasn't skipped a beat and remains one of the league's best and most consistent teams. The club's underlying metrics are excellent, David Pastrnak continues to spearhead a strong offense, and Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark give it one of the best goaltending tandems.
But if I'm jumping into the betting market to get involved with an Atlantic Division side at current prices, I'm taking the Panthers. Specifically, I like their Eastern Conference odds (+450) in a wide-open race.
Despite playing the season's first couple months without top defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, Florida is tied for the conference lead in wins and sits first in expected goal share. The sky is the limit now that the Panthers are healthy, and I think there's enough incentive for them to push all their chips into the middle to upgrade.
Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling, and Montour are unrestricted free agents at season's end and are all in line for monster raises. Florida won't be able to keep its fantastic core fully intact, so it makes sense to go all in while everyone's around. Only the Jets and Hurricanes - notoriously stingy spenders - have more cap space than the Panthers among playoff teams. Look for Florida to use that financial flexibility come deadline time.
The Hurricanes are just two points behind the Rangers for the top spot in the division and have a game in hand. I love their chances of surpassing New York by season's end.
Carolina has dealt with atrocious goaltending for much of the season and ranks 30th in team save percentage. But there's light at the end of the tunnel. Pyotr Kochetkov has helped stabilize things lately, and he's back healthy again. Frederik Andersen has also resumed on-ice activities and could factor in, which would be a big help.
The Metro shouldn't be an issue if the Hurricanes get anything resembling competent goaltending. They're also a much better five-on-five team than New York in controlling the run of play and scoring. The Rangers actually own a negative goal differential in that game state, and they're not nearly as good as their record indicates.
New York relies heavily on its power play and goaltending to get wins. However, Igor Shesterkin has struggled while the man advantage has dried up over the last 10 games, scoring just five power-play goals. It's no coincidence the Rangers have won only four times (against the Senators, Ducks, Capitals, and Kraken) during that span.
Regarding long shots, the Devils are worth considering to win the East and/or Stanley Cup. They entered the season at +900 to win it all, the third shortest odds. Injuries have primarily led to New Jersey's struggles rather than poor performance.
Jack Hughes has multiple extended stints out of the lineup. Timo Meier missed significant time. Nico Hischier was sidelined. Dougie Hamilton has played just 20 games. The list goes on. When healthy, the Devils are a handful to deal with, and they should be healthy sooner rather than later. Hughes is expected to return shortly after the All-Star break. Meier and Hischier are back in the lineup already. Hamilton is likely to return around playoff time, assuming New Jersey gets there.
The Devils have a chance to do damage if they can get healthy and find an upgrade in goal, something they're rumored to be chasing.
The Oilers are having one of the craziest seasons I can remember. At one point, they were sitting in the basement with the Sharks. Fast-forward a couple of months, and Edmonton's listed as Stanley Cup favorites - understandably so!
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman have led the charge for an unstoppable Oilers offense. The team has also tightened things defensively, while Stuart Skinner has seen his level of play go from among the worst to the best. He has stopped 18.39 goals above expected since Dec. 1, placing him second only to Connor Hellebuyck (18.48).
If Edmonton can rely on quality goaltending from Skinner, there aren't many holes you can poke in this team. I see some value on the Oilers to come out of the West at +325.
The Canucks are an excellent team, and adding Elias Lindholm certainly makes them better, as it addresses the club's need in the middle of the ice and boosts the top power play. I just don't want to get in the way of the Oilers.
The Central Division playoff picture is wide open, and you can make the case for either of the three key contenders. The Avalanche have the most firepower but lack depth and goaltending. Although the Stars are the most well-balanced team, Jake Oettinger's inconsistent play is a concern. Then there's the Jets, who have the least amount of star talent but play a very structured defensive game and have arguably the league's top goaltender. Pick your poison.
I think the best way to get involved is by backing the Avalanche to come out on top in the regular season. They're a notoriously dominant regular-season team and appear to be hitting their stride. Colorado also has the softest remaining schedule of all Central Division clubs.
It'll likely come down to the wire, but +145 for the current leaders, led by Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, is a price worth getting involved with.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
Copyright (C) 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.