Calder Trophy Rankings: Injured Bedard still in picture

Come on, of course Connor Bedard is still in the mix for the Calder Trophy. What, like a little jaw surgery was going to knock him out of the race?

With that being said, there is a new No. 1 on our rankings.

Let's get into it.

5. Samuel Ersson, Flyers Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	SV%	GAA	SO
23 (12-9-3)	.898	2.60	3

Ersson's arrival on these rankings is the culmination of a few factors.

For one, Adam Fantilli was more or less eliminated from the running thanks to a lacerated calf. Secondly, Ersson's arguably going to have the most on his plate out of all rookie netminders: Joseph Woll is still out with an ankle sprain, while Pyotr Kochetkov has been injured and will likely have less playing time following Frederik Andersen's eventual return for the Hurricanes. Ersson, meanwhile, is currently the No. 1 guy in Philadelphia. The Flyers are in the heat of the playoff race, and a lot of their hopes are now riding on the 24-year-old's shoulders.

No, not all of Ersson's numbers are outstanding and he's lost his last four starts, but he still leads all first-year goaltenders in both wins and shutouts while ranking second in goals above replacement (6.7) and tying Woll in wins above replacement (1.1). Prior to his latest skid, Ersson's 2.26 goals against average ranked sixth among all goalies - not just rookies - to play in at least 10 games.

If the Swede can stay healthy and bounce back after the All-Star break, there's a big chance he can muscle his way into the Calder Trophy conversation down the stretch. Right now, though, Ersson's status as a finalist is in "wait and see" mode.

4. Marco Rossi, Wild David Berding / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	P	ATOI
49	13	28	16:47

Rossi has been one of the league's most underrated rookies this season, but he's still out here doing his thing. The Wild forward ranks second among all first-year players in goals and third in points, and he owns the fifth-highest point-per-game rate (0.57) out of all rookies to appear in at least 10 games this season.

The 22-year-old's 25 points at even strength are tied with Bedard for the most in the class and with Joel Eriksson Ek for the most on the Wild. Minnesota hasn't been the league's most dominant team at even strength, but Rossi has been key to his team's production in those situations. He's second on the Wild in points per 60 (2.17) and third in goals per 60 (0.99) at five-on-five.

In addition, Rossi has gotten more ice time since his last appearance on these rankings in December. Then, he was eating up just over 16 minutes per game, but he's now pushed that number to a tad under 18 minutes.

Rossi's individual underlying numbers are also some of the best on the team. Out of all Wild skaters with at least 200 minutes of ice time at five-on-five, he places fourth in shot attempts for (51.8%), second in goals for (58.8%), and sixth in shots for (50.1%).

3. Luke Hughes, Devils Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	P	ATOI
47	8	26	20:40

Though the Calder Trophy pursuit is more or less a two-horse race by this point, we'd be surprised if Hughes isn't named a finalist come springtime.

He may no longer lead all rookie blue-liners in points after putting up just five in 12 games in January, but he's still on pace for a respectable 45 points. He also still tops all first-year defensemen in goals and goals per game played (0.17), all while putting up the second most shots (67).

The 20-year-old has shouldered a fairly large role in New Jersey all season, and his workload has only increased with Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler on the sidelines. The Devils have been without both members of their usual top pair since Jan. 6, when Siegenthaler went down with a broken foot. Hughes has averaged a team-leading 23:05 minutes of ice time in his last nine games, and New Jersey has controlled 53.1% of the shot attempts and 51.8% of the expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five over that span.

New Jersey's sputtering power play lacks some serious personnel, which is likely hurting Hughes' offense. Since missing both Hamilton and injured superstar forward Jack Hughes, the Devils' power play has been operating at an awful 8.7% success rate in its last 10 games. Despite the lull, Hughes still leads the class with 12 points on the man advantage.

2. Connor Bedard, Blackhawks Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	P	ATOI
39	15	33	19:04

A Bedard-less edition of these rankings just didn't feel right. His Calder Trophy case isn't as airtight as it was before, but there's no doubt the 2023 first overall pick is still a front-runner.

In case you somehow haven't heard, Bedard hasn't played since early January after suffering a fractured jaw. Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson told reporters on Jan. 22 that Bedard is expected to miss at least six more weeks, meaning the phenom might not be able to return to the lineup until early March. The most games a rookie has ever missed in a Calder-winning season is 17 (Russ Blinco in 1933-34 and Steve Vickers in 1972-73); Bedard will likely miss more than that. Connor McDavid didn't take home the hardware after being sidelined for over half of his rookie season, though he was named a finalist.

Working in Bedard's favor is the fact that he's an absolute alien. Despite missing the Blackhawks' last 12 games, he still leads his team in points while tying Jason Dickinson for most goals. He holds a four-point and two-goal edge in the rookie scoring race. No one has caught up to him yet, and that's just madness.

However, it's not like the other rookies have been sitting on their hands waiting for Bedard's return. The 18-year-old will need to hit the ground running whenever he returns to reclaim his stranglehold on the Calder Trophy.

1. Brock Faber, Wild David Berding / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	P	ATOI
49	4	29	24:51

We've been beating the Faber drum for the last couple of months, so it should come as no surprise that he's taken the top spot from Bedard for now.

Faber is now second in the rookie scoring race, and his 13 points in 12 games since Bedard went down are the most among all first-year players. That stretch included two straight multi-point games, meaning Faber has recorded at least two points in six contests this campaign - the most among rookie rearguards.

The Wild are in the throes of a tough season and might miss the playoffs, but it's far from Faber's fault. Minnesota has heaped a ton of responsibility on his plate, and he's handled it more often than not. Faber has over 1,200 minutes of ice time this season, a whopping 200 minutes more than Eriksson Ek, the Wild's second-busiest player. Despite the 21-year-old's heavy workload against the league's top talent, Minnesota has outscored the opposition 42-38 with him on the ice at five-on-five.

Thanks to Faber's recent offensive push, he's on pace for around 48 points. If he can push that number to 50, he'd become the fourth rookie blue-liner to hit the mark since 1992-93, joining Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Moritz Seider. Makar and Seider both won the Calder Trophy for their efforts. If Faber keeps up the pace, he'll be doing more than just keeping Bedard's spot warm on these rankings. He could realistically challenge the favorite for the hardware.

Keep an eye on:

• Leo Carlsson, Ducks
• Logan Cooley, Coyotes
• Simon Nemec, Devils
• Dmitri Voronkov, Blue Jackets
• Connor Zary, Flames

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)

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