Super Bowl LVIII betting: Deebo headlines anytime TD scorer value
Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result, but ideally, there will be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
We've had great success during the regular season and in the playoffs backing players to score, and there's nothing more exciting than one of your picks crossing the goal line or hauls in a touchdown.
We've also been profitable by combining on-field matchups, player opportunity, and pricing - not necessarily in that order. Travis Kelce's a good bet at +135, but not at -135, regardless of whether he finds the end zone.
Deebo Samuel: Anytime touchdown (+160)We liked Deebo Samuel in the rushing prop market and the receiving prop market, so why not expect him to score as well?
Christian McCaffrey takes up much of the touchdown-scoring probability pie, but Samuel is priced similarly to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk and provides a threat on the ground that those other two pass-catchers don't, evidenced by his seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Hurt after just nine snaps in Week 6 at Cleveland, Samuel missed the next two games and played sparingly in Week 18. In the 13 games where Samuel played more than 50% of the snaps, he scored 14 touchdowns in eight different games for a scoring rate of 61.5%. That percentage would translate into implied odds of -160. So, with a clean bill of health after an 11-target game in the NFC Championship, he's the best value for San Francisco.
Isiah Pacheco: Anytime touchdown (-120)There are no guarantees in betting, but scoring in seven straight games as the clear top option for the Chiefs at the goal line is a good start. Kansas City is still prone to overthinking its play-calling, as evidenced by the Mecole Hardman debacle in Buffalo, but if the team plays it straight, Isiah Pacheco is more likely to score than a -120 price (54.5% implied probability) suggests.
Skyy Moore: Anytime touchdown (+700)Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+700)
Let's split a unit across a pair of support players on the Chiefs' offense.
A quiet note came across the transaction wire on Wednesday, as Skyy Moore was activated from injured reserve. There isn't much separating him from the rest of the Chiefs' mediocre wideouts - aside from Rashee Rice - but he had a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII, and the time he missed after Week 15 was the result of an injury. Jerick McKinnon was unable to get back in the lineup, and Hardman played just one snap in the AFC Championship. Moore, meanwhile, provides a speedy red-zone passing threat who played more than 50% of the Chiefs' snaps before his knee injury.
Noah Gray plays over 50% of the snaps as well, but there are no question marks around his status. Gray had at least three targets and 20 receiving yards or a touchdown in every game but one since Week 8. He shows up in the game plan as regularly as he gets on the field.
Kyle Juszczyk (+900)Kyle Juszczyk qualifies for a long-shot bet by having the longest odds for a 49ers regular. It helps that he's a break-in-case-of-emergency player for Kyle Shanahan in high-leverage situations. In Super Bowl LIV, Juszczyk broke open three times for completions, scoring on one and falling just short of a second touchdown. With so many other weapons for the Chiefs to worry about, it wouldn't be surprising for the reliable fullback's head coach to call a play for "Juice" near the goal line.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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