NHL weekday betting guide: Market reacts to stars moving in, out of lineup

During the extended period when the Devils were without Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, oddsmakers downgraded New Jersey 7%-10% in their overall power rating. Coming into the campaign, with a regular-season point total of 107 in betting markets, the Devils' power rating was second in the league, estimating a fully healthy roster as 17% above a league-average team.

The market adjusted upon Hughes's return against the Flames, giving the Devils back 4% of their implied win probability, making them -135 at home in the game. Getting Hughes back may have helped their implied win probability, but nothing guarantees victory, as they lost 5-3 to Calgary, then lost 1-0 in overtime in Carolina as an underdog Saturday.

Hughes is the best player to recently return to his team after missing a large segment of the season. Nathan MacKinnon is questionable Tuesday with a facial injury suffered Saturday. It would be his first game missed this season. He sat out 18 games last season, and the market adjusted, lowering the Avalanche's likelihood of winning between 5% and 10%.

Morgan Rielly is headed for an in-person meeting after an incident in Ottawa on Saturday. That implies a significant suspension is coming, so we'll get a decent sample size of the market's reaction to the Maple Leafs' chances without their best defenseman among an already thin group.

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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