Werenski to exploit leaky Rangers defense on Wednesday night

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We're off to a strong start this week. Thanks to a 3-0 sweep with our player props, we put together a winning night on Monday. The script flipped with a mini-sweep on Tuesday's team bets, leading to a profitable 3-2 night.

Let's take a look at a few plays that stand out on Wednesday's slate as we look to keep the ball rolling.

Zach Werenski: Over 2.5 shots

The Rangers are leaking on the back end. They've allowed 34.83 shots per game over the last 10 contests, which falls just 0.04 behind the last-placed Sharks in that span. They give up a ton of volume every night.

This isn't just a difficult patch in the schedule. New York simply isn't defending well. Non-playoff teams like the Islanders, Devils, and Blue Jackets generated 40+ shots against the Rangers over the past two weeks.

Werenski took advantage of the Rangers' struggles the last time he saw them, firing four pucks on net.

The blue-liner is piling up the shots of late: Werenski's recorded three or more in seven of his past 10 games and averaged 3.5 shots on nearly seven attempts in that span. Those are very healthy outputs.

With Werenski in fine form offensively and the Rangers bleeding shots, this is a favorable spot for another active shooting performance from the defenseman.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Warren Foegele: Under 2.5 shots

Foegele recently had a cup of coffee riding shotgun with Connor McDavid, where he was very productive shooting the puck.

He's back on the third line but is still priced as if he's getting prime minutes at even strength. Including the games Foegele played on McDavid's line, he's averaging slightly less than 14 minutes of ice time over the last 10 outings. We generally expect him to fall in the 12-14 range.

Using that as a reference point, Foegele has cleared his shot total in only nine of 32 games when playing 14 minutes or less. That's a 28% hit rate.

He's averaged 3.6 shot attempts per game at such usage. That leaves little margin for error in terms of hitting the target. If Foegele misses the net or has one blocked, it's difficult for him to go over on any given night.

The matchup is scary - St. Louis isn't a good defensive team - but I'm happy to take my chances given Foegele's expected ice time.

Odds: -118 (playable to -130)

Robert Thomas: Over 0.5 points

I think the price on this line is rather egregious. Thomas has been one of the most consistent point producers in the NHL this season, finding the scoresheet in 70% of his games.

Using his success rate as a barometer, something in the ballpark of -230 would be a fair price for Thomas to get a point. Not all teams are equal - and the Oilers are quite good - but -140 is generous.

However, we've seen a dip in the Oilers' defensive play lately. They've given up shots at a higher clip than usual and Stuart Skinner's play has regressed. He's allowed at least three goals in six of his past seven starts.

There should be a couple of goals on the table for the Blues. Given how integral Thomas is to the offense - at five-on-five and on the power play - I like his chances of getting involved in one.

Odds: -140 (playable to -165)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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