Fantasy: Analysis, projections from Day 2 of free agency

Justin Boone

from on 2024-03-13 00:38 (#6K9RW)

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The second day of the NFL's legal tampering window has already featured several offensive moves with fantasy implications.

Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position transactions so far and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesRavens sign RB Derrick Henry

Henry's contract: 2 years, $16 million

In what was the most obvious pairing in all of free agency, the Ravens filled a massive hole in their backfield by signing one of the game's most dominating runners in Henry.

The 30-year-old back put together another strong campaign in 2023 with 1,381 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns. He accomplished the feat despite his age, the overwhelming amount of touches he's already handled in his career, and the lack of a competent offensive line in Tennessee.

The Ravens present an ideal landing spot with a much better set of blockers and the league's best rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson. The combination of Jackson's elusiveness and Henry's brute force will be a nightmare for opposing defenses in 2024.

As long as the wheels don't come off now that he's on the wrong side of 30, Henry is poised to be a top-15 fantasy back once again.

Henry's 2024 projection (16 games): 254 carries, 1,067 rushing yards, 11 TDs, 23 receptions, 175 receiving yards

Vikings sign RB Aaron Jones

Jones' contract: 1 year, $7 million

One day after being let go by the Packers, Jones finds a new home within the NFC North. By becoming a member of the Vikings, Jones may not have improved his chances of reaching the Super Bowl, but he will get to face Green Bay twice a year moving forward.

The only question is how much Jones - who turns 30 in December - has left in the tank.

Aside from the games missed due to injury, Jones continued to be effective as a runner and pass-catcher last season. He finished the year hot, topping 100 rushing yards in five straight contests, including both of the Packers' playoff contests.

Jones will immediately step into a similar lead-back role in Minnesota, where he'll be spelled at times by Ty Chandler. Players like Chandler and Dalvin Cook have had fantasy success in the Vikings' backfield in recent years, but the departure of Kirk Cousins will increase the degree of difficulty for the entire offense.

The team will likely draft a rookie quarterback to pair with recently signed Sam Darnold, but until we know who will be starting under center - I'm approaching Jones cautiously as a fringe RB2/RB3 in fantasy.

Meanwhile, Chandler's path to significant touches will require a Jones injury, which is possible and perhaps even likely given his age. Keep Chandler in mind as a high-upside backup worth targeting in the late rounds.

Jones' 2024 projection (15 games): 193 carries, 894 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 45 receptions, 342 receiving yards, TD

Texans acquire RB Joe Mixon

Reports of Mixon's release from the Bengals turned out to be premature. Instead, Cincy's front office managed to swing a trade with the Texans before having to officially cut him.

Now, Mixon heads to Houston where he'll be the No. 1 back in a promising offense led by C.J. Stroud.

The Texans showed a willingness to feed their lead runner last season, and once they settled on Devin Singletary as the starter in the second half of the year, he posted solid RB2 fantasy stats.

Even with Joe Burrow sidelined for a big chunk of 2023, Mixon still finished as a top-12 back in fantasy points per game. So it'll be exciting to see what he can do with the majority of the backfield touches in Houston.

It makes him a surprisingly enticing fantasy asset despite the fact he'll be 28 when the season kicks off. I value him as an RB2 with low-end RB1 upside in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's scheme.

Mixon's 2024 projection (16 games): 243 carries, 1,021 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 42 receptions, 301 receiving yards, TD

Panthers acquire WR Diontae Johnson

After fielding one of the worst receiving corps in the league during Bryce Young's rookie season, the Panthers are taking steps to give him the weapons he needs to succeed in 2024.

The first step was trading for Diontae Johnson on Tuesday. His displeasure with his role in the Steelers' offense boiled over this past year, making an offseason trade almost guaranteed.

Johnson is a quality NFL receiver who will now have the opportunity to be Carolina's No. 1 option.

Don't forget, this is a player who finished as the WR10 in 2021 with 107 catches, 1,161 yards, and eight touchdowns. And at 27 years old, he's topped 86 receptions in three of his five seasons as a pro. He gives the Panthers a legit target to build their passing attack around and someone capable of producing as a top-25 fantasy wideout.

If new head coach Dave Canales can work the same magic he did with Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, the Panthers' passing attack could be a lot more interesting this year.

Johnson's 2024 projection (17 games): 89 receptions, 934 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Falcons sign WR Darnell Mooney

Mooney's contract: 3 years, $39 million

The Falcons made another move to retool their offense this week, adding a quality second receiver for newly acquired quarterback Cousins.

There seemed to be a decent market for Mooney's services, and he ultimately signed a deal equivalent to what Gabe Davis got with the Jaguars on Monday.

In Atlanta, Mooney joins an ascending group that features top target Drake London, star sophomore back Bijan Robinson, and talented tight end Kyle Pitts.

That's a lot of target competition and, unfortunately, it will likely limit the speedy Mooney to a boom-or-bust WR4 role for fantasy. But new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will bring a more pass-heavy attack to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and we should expect all four players to have their shining moments.

Get ready for the Falcons to receive a lot of hype in real life and fantasy over the next few months, leading to soaring ADPs for everyone mentioned here.

Mooney's 2024 projection (17 games): 57 receptions, 714 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Minor movesBengals sign TE Mike Gesicki

Signing in Cincinnati gives Gesicki an excellent opportunity to be a starter in a strong passing attack with a star quarterback at the helm - essentially, the opposite of what he experienced last year in New England when he played second fiddle to Hunter Henry and dealt with a revolving door at QB. Whether Gesicki can become a fantasy starter will depend on what the Bengals do with Tee Higgins. Playing behind Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase has made it tough for any tight end to see consistent targets, and the results have been mostly underwhelming for players like C.J. Uzomah, Hayden Hurst, Irv Smith Jr., and Tanner Hudson over the last few seasons. However, if the Bengals grant Higgins' trade request, a pass-catching tight end like Gesicki could push for low-end fantasy TE1 status. At the moment, I'm valuing him as a TE2/streamer with upside.

Vikings sign QB Sam Darnold

After losing Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, the Vikings needed to bring in someone at quarterback - even if just as a placeholder. Darnold apparently received interest from several clubs, but he's a bridge QB at best. Minnesota will almost certainly draft a signal-caller in the first round, in the hope that player will start in Week 1. If Darnold is taking snaps for the Vikings in the season opener, something has gone terribly wrong and Justin Jefferson's fantasy stock will take a hit.

Browns sign QB Jameis Winston

Winston went from a volatile fantasy starter with the Buccaneers at the beginning of his career to a content backup with the Saints known more for his funny quotes than his play on the field. However, signing in Cleveland breathes a little hope into Winston's outlook. As we saw with Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco over the last two seasons, the Browns' offense can be a productive place for spot starters. If Deshaun Watson struggles or misses time again, Winston has all the weapons necessary to get back on the fantasy map.

Giants sign QB Drew Lock

Given Daniel Jones' struggles and injuries, the Giants need a capable backup. After losing Tyrod Taylor to the Jets in free agency, the Giants secured Lock, who performed well in his two starts for the Seahawks last year. Like most No. 2 QB signings, the Giants will hope they don't need to use Lock this season.

Commanders sign QB Marcus Mariota

The Mariota signing isn't particularly noteworthy for fantasy, but it does make you wonder what Washington plans to do with Sam Howell. Is Mariota just a veteran presence in a QB room that's about to have Howell and a first-round rookie, or will the Commanders move on from Howell and start fresh with a rookie starter and Mariota backing him up? It's a situation we'll be monitoring.

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