MacKinnon to continue home dominance vs. Canadiens
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We started the week on a strong note with our player props, cashing two of three plays during a quiet night in the NHL.
We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for Tuesday's juicy card.
Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shotsMacKinnon is on a different planet right now, especially when playing at home. He has at least six shots (yes, six!) in eight of his past nine games, averaging just under seven shots on target per night in that span.
The only time he didn't get the job done was against an improved Maple Leafs squad, and MacKinnon still recorded three points. He made his mark offensively - he just didn't hit the net with his shots.
The Avalanche star should have little problem piling up the shots against the Canadiens, a poor defensive side that has given up more volume to opposing centers than any team in the league over the last 10 games.
It's also worth noting MacKinnon has at least one point in all 34 home games this season and has finished with multiple points 74% of the time. He is in the midst of a truly historic campaign, chasing down Wayne Gretzky for the most consecutive home games with a point.
MacKinnon is an ultra-competitive player. He is not only chasing history as an individual but the No. 1 seed as the lead dog of his team. He has every incentive to continue firing on all cylinders, and I expect he'll do just that in a mouthwatering matchup.
Odds: -140 (playable to -150)
Seth Jones: Over 2.5 shotsJones has been one of the most consistent shot-generating defensemen for a while. He has soared over this total in eight of the past 10 games and 12 of 15 overall.
He's averaging 3.8 shots on nearly eight attempts in that span, which is the volume you'd expect from a marquee shooting winger carrying a 3.5 total like William Nylander or Filip Forsberg. Yet his total remains at 2.5.
The Blackhawks blue-liner is in a great spot to go over again at home to the Flames. They have really loosened up since selling a few regulars (including two of their top defensemen, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev) at the trade deadline in early March.
The Flames sit near the basement in five-on-five shot suppression the last 10 games. They have given up a lot of volume to defenders in that span; only eight teams have fared worse.
As a bonus, the Flames have played at the eighth-highest five-on-five pace over the same period. A high-event matchup should raise the shooting floor and ceiling of a minute-muncher like Jones.
Odds: -122 (playable to -140)
Wyatt Johnston: Over 2.5 shotsJohnston has been a road warrior this season. His hit rate on the road is 13% higher than at home and the volume numbers suggest that is no coincidence.
The Stars forward is producing 6.6 shot attempts per game on the road, a noticeable boost from the 5.3 he averages when playing in Dallas.
His road success should continue Tuesday night in San Jose. The Sharks have played abysmal defense all season, giving up more shots per night than every other team in the league.
Johnston has faced the Sharks twice already and taken full advantage, recording five and six shots on goal while combining to generate a whopping 19 attempts.
I don't know that I'd expect five or six shots, but he should have little problem going over his total once again.
Odds: -134 (playable to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
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