NHL betting guide: Which regular-season point totals are still at stake?
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How'd your team do this season?
Once the Eastern Conference mercifully sorts itself out in the coming days, 16 teams will have failed to make the playoffs, and two months from now, 31 will have failed to win the Stanley Cup. However, that doesn't mean every team that doesn't do ceremonial circles around the ice with the Cup gets a thumbs-down on the season.
That's why betting is so fun. We have a market available before the season that sets a preliminary bar for what should constitute a successful campaign: regular-season point totals.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, the 2023-24 season will be remembered by Canucks backers as the easiest win imaginable on an over ticket, as Vancouver cleared 89 points weeks ago. The Jets surpassed expectations at nearly the same level.
Regular-season point totals: Over winners| Team | Regular-season point totals |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 107.5 |
| Stars | 105.5 |
| Rangers | 102 |
| Bruins | 100 |
| Panthers | 98.5 |
| Lightning | 95.5 |
| Jets | 91.5 |
| Canucks | 89 |
| Predators | 87 |
| Red Wings | 85.5 |
| Capitals | 85 |
| Blues | 84.5 |
| Flyers | 75.5 |
| Canadiens | 72 |
Fourteen teams are considered winners for their bettors, and even if the Red Wings, Capitals, and Flyers don't make the playoffs, they'll be considered winners in some circles. On the flip side, if you preferred to bet against achievement, the Sharks, Blackhawks, Senators, and Flames were the four biggest disappointments of 13 teams that clinched their under totals (though most teams that didn't get to their prescribed numbers weren't even close).
Regular-season point totals: Under winners| Team | RSP Totals |
|---|---|
| Devils | 107 |
| Maple Leafs | 106.5 |
| Golden Knights | 102.5 |
| Penguins | 97.5 |
| Wild | 96.5 |
| Flames | 94.5 |
| Kraken | 93 |
| Sabres | 92.5 |
| Senators | 91.5 |
| Blue Jackets | 73.5 |
| Blackhawks | 71 |
| Ducks | 67.5 |
| Sharks | 66.5 |
Of course, the Maple Leafs, Golden Knights, and Penguins could still win the Stanley Cup, but that won't be much consolation for those who felt they'd have better regular seasons.
Twenty-seven teams have either paid out their backers or faders, which leaves five teams hanging in the balance for the season's final week:
Regular-season point totals: Markets TBD| Team | Point Totals | Points Needed | Games Left |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | 106.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Oilers | 106 | 5 | 3 |
| Kings | 100.5 | 4 | 2 |
| Islanders | 90 | 1 | 2 |
| Coyotes | 76.5 | 2 | 1 |
The Avalanche play their finale against the Oilers at home Thursday. That game may be meaningless for both, but not for either team's bettors, since Edmonton has to get two wins in its final three games to clear its regular-season points total, potentially without Connor McDavid.
An up-and-down season for the Kings closes with two home games against below-average teams (Wild and Blackhawks). Well rested and motivated for playoff positioning, those who need L.A. to go over 100.5 should feel good, but nothing's guaranteed.
The Islanders are no worse than a push and have two games to manage one point. Appropriately, one more point should get New York into the playoffs, as well, so the art of betting is imitating life here.
Here's a fun one: The Coyotes have one more game to get two points needed to go over their total, and it's against the Oilers in what could be their final game in Arizona before moving to Utah.
The cheat sheetEach week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.
You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr. 15 | MTL@DET | 39.2/60.8 | MTL +184/DET -149 |
| NSH@PIT | 42.7/57.3 | NSH +159/PIT -129 | |
| BOS@WSH | 59.1/40.9 | BOS -139/WSH +171 | |
| NYI@NJD | 47.2/52.8 | NYI +131/NJD -107 | |
| BUF@TB | 43.3/56.7 | BUF +154/TB -126 | |
| OTT@NYR | 41.4/58.6 | OTT +167/NYR -136 | |
| SJS@EDM | 20.4/79.6 | SJS +508/EDM -366 | |
| MIN@LAK | 41.8/58.2 | MIN +165/LAK -134 | |
| Apr. 16 | CAR@CBJ | 75.9/24.1 | CAR -298/CBJ +397 |
| DET@MTL | 52.8/47.2 | DET -107/MTL +131 | |
| OTT@BOS | 40.3/59.7 | OTT +175/BOS -142 | |
| WSH@PHI | 43.2/56.8 | WSH +155/PHI -126 | |
| TOR@FLA | 47.7/52.3 | TOR +121/FLA +101 | |
| SEA@WPG | 43.6/56.4 | SEA +152/WPG -124 | |
| CHI@VGK | 21.4/78.6 | CHI +476/VGK -347 | |
| Apr. 17 | TOR@TB | 50.8/49.2 | TOR +107/TB +114 |
| PIT@NYI | 50.7/49.3 | PIT +108/NYI +114 | |
| STL@DAL | 25.5/74.5 | STL +365/DAL -277 | |
| EDM@ARI | 60.3/39.7 | EDM -146/ARI +180 | |
| Apr. 18 | SEA@MIN | 42.7/57.3 | SEA +159/MIN -129 |
| VAN@WPG | 46.4/53.6 | VAN +136/WPG -111 | |
| SJS@CGY | 22.7/77.3 | SJS +434/CGY -322 | |
| EDM@COL | 36.3/63.7 | EDM +210/COL -168 | |
| ANA@VGK | 27.3/72.7 | ANA +328/VGK -253 | |
| CHI@LAK | 20.5/79.5 | CHI +504/LAK -364 |
It's worth mentioning as the season concludes: The above odds imply both teams have full interest in the game. For example, the Oilers' numbers reflect McDavid sitting out, since there seems little reason for Edmonton to bring him back before the playoffs. Other teams with secure playoff positioning may opt to put any number of roster combinations on the ice, so tread lightly.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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