Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Desperation Thursday

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As the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, game moneylines theoretically get tighter. With more information about how teams match up, the quantitative value dries up. However, since there's more than one way to make a bet, we'll put an old cliche to the test Thursday and hope that desperation from a pair of teams at home down 2-0 is enough to get a win.

Game 3: Panthers (-105) @ Lightning (-115)

As is often the case with overtime results, this series may have been swung by Carter Verhaeghe's fifth career sudden-death playoff goal. Of course, the writing might have been on the wall after Sergei Bobrovsky's effort on what will be hard to beat for save of the playoffs:

SERGEI BOBROVSKY WHAT A SAVE!

(: @FlaPanthers) pic.twitter.com/vLqK5Vlx7v

- theScore (@theScore) April 24, 2024

If Matt Dumba converts there to give the Lightning a 3-2 lead, maybe we never see overtime, and maybe this series is tied. It's a big assumption, since the trailing Panthers would have put the pedal down even further - something they were already doing to the tune of an 18-8 high-danger chance disparity in the second period.

Florida's significant edge in five-on-five metrics came in the early stages of Game 1 and the second period of Game 2. While that's better than the lack of dominant stretches for Tampa, who's to say the Lightning can't have similar surges in front of their home crowd? That's what a bet here is hoping for.

One silver lining in the Lightning's empty trip across Florida was the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's saved two cumulative goals against each game. Getting its No. 1 goaltender back on form was obviously key for Tampa before the series and bodes well for Game 3.

Before this series started, our target moneyline price to back the Lightning at home was essentially anything with a "+" in front of it. While -115 implies something of desperation tax, in a do-or-almost-die situation, the Lightning are the only side worth backing.

Best bet: Lightning moneyline (-115)

Game 3: Hurricanes (-165) @ Islanders (+140)

Carolina almost pulled a "Hurricane" in Game 2. The oft-heavily favored Canes are somewhat infamous for losing games they dominate everywhere but the scoreboard, something that nearly happened when they trailed the Islanders 3-0, in a game they had 110 shot attempts to New York's 28.

Carolina surged back to win in regulation, and the metrics didn't flatter the Isles. The Hurricanes' trailing game state - where the Isles assumed clinging to a lead was their best hope - had much to do with that.

Back home in a new building, in front of a fanbase known for out-and-out mayhem, the Isles should be the aggressors again, and if they get an early lead, they'll have inspiration to stay on the front foot. Especially since going down 3-0 in the series to a much better team isn't an option.

With goaltender Semyon Varlamov still reeling from the Game 2 onslaught, New York will turn to Ilya Sorokin for Game 3. Sorokin was the Islanders' nominal starter before a late-season Varlamov push. Sorokin's splits were much better at home this season, with a 15-7 regulation record compared to 10-12 on the road. He allows almost half a goal less at UBS Arena.

The market's well aware that if the Isles get a game in this series, this will be it. They're priced a little shorter than we'd like, but this should be the Islanders' best 60 minutes of the season and we'll bet it that way.

Best bet: Islanders moneyline (+140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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