Fantasy: NFL draft Round 1 analysis and projections

theScore's Justin Boone breaks down every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (1st)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,849 passing yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs
323 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 6 FUMs

Thanks to a forward-thinking trade with the Panthers last year, the Bears were able to secure the No. 1 pick and - they hope - a true franchise quarterback in Williams.

While first-round QBs are far from a sure thing, Williams is an elite prospect with an extremely high ceiling if he can live up to the hype. And unlike most rookie passers, the 22-year-old joins a Bears offense with enough firepower for him to succeed immediately.

The presence of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (spoiler), Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift will ease Williams' burden in Year 1.

His immediate fantasy impact could be similar to what C.J. Stroud did for the Texans in 2023: Low-end QB1, despite the lack of big-time rushing production.

Redraft ranking: QB14
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): Late 1st-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.01

Fantasy stock up: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift
Fantasy stock down: None

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (2nd)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (15 starts): 3,023 passing yards, 16 TDs, 13 INTs
719 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 9 FUMs

After flirting with several QB prospects in recent weeks, the Commanders finally made the decision to select Daniels second overall.

The 23-year-old is coming off a monster season at LSU, throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while rushing for another 1,134 yards and 10 scores on the ground.

Gregory Shamus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Washington may not have the same dynamic pass-catching duo as Daniels enjoyed in his last college campaign, but his rushing skills alone make him an instant fantasy option.

If he can acclimate quickly into offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's system, Daniels' passing accuracy (especially downfield) will put defenses into a bind as they try to game plan against his dangerous dual-threat ability.

Redraft ranking: QB16
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): : 2nd-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.02-1.04

Fantasy stock up: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Zach Ertz
Fantasy stock down: None

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (3rd)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,437 passing yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs
406 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 7 FUMs

The Patriots were reportedly open to trading down, but in the end held onto the third pick to invest their future in Maye.

Unfortunately for Maye, he lands in one of the worst spots for a fantasy QB, as New England currently lacks high-end pass-catching weapons.

The 21-year-old's also a prospect who needs to continue to develop if he's going to emerge as a strong NFL starter. He'll have to hope his natural playmaking ability will help him get by until he gets comfortable in the pros.

Though Maye's an intriguing fantasy player, don't expect to see significant production from him right away. He's best viewed as a dynasty asset.

Redraft ranking: QB25
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08

Fantasy stock up: Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson
Fantasy stock down: Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals (4th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 81 receptions, 1,127 receiving yards, 6 TDs

The Cardinals were fortunate the three teams ahead of them needed QBs because it allowed Harrison Jr. to fall into their hands.

Receiver also happened to be one of Arizona's biggest needs and now they have an elite prospect with a Hall of Fame father in his corner.

Gregory Shamus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Harrison Jr. was a prolific collegiate wideout who managed to produce with different quarterbacks under center during his time at Ohio State.

His talent, production profile, pedigree, and draft capital all point toward him becoming a superstar. Landing in Arizona also provides him with incredible volume, which should make him a fantasy WR2 as a rookie.

Don't be surprised when he's mentioned alongside Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb in the coming years.

Redraft ranking: WR24
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 2nd-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.02-1.04

Fantasy stock up: Kyler Murray, James Conner
Fantasy stock down: Trey McBride

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (6th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 84 receptions, 1,109 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Nabers would have been the first receiver off the board in most drafts; some teams apparently had him ranked higher than Harrison Jr.

Clearly the Giants weren't one of them.

The bad news for Nabers is he won't have as good a quarterback as MHJ during their rookie campaigns. However, Nabers should see plenty of volume to help offset that - especially if Darren Waller retires.

New York's been stockpiling mediocre receivers for the last few years, but now they have a potential superstar.

Nabers, who'll turn 21 in July, has game-breaking speed, outstanding quickness, and as high a ceiling as any player at his position.

Much like Harrison Jr., Nabers should challenge for top-24 fantasy receivers stats in Year 1 and could be mentioned among the NFL's best wideouts within a couple years.

Redraft ranking: WR28
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 3rd-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.03-1.05

Fantasy stock up: Daniel Jones
Fantasy stock down: Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons (8th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (0 starts): Backup to Kirk Cousins

In the first and biggest surprise of the opening round, the Falcons selected a rookie QB who'll sit behind Kirk Cousins for the foreseeable future.

Cousins will be 36 in August, but he just signed a mega four-year deal with Atlanta. Penix Jr., meanwhile, saw his name gain a lot of steam in recent weeks, and he's an older prospect who'll turn 24 in May.

Now he'll play the role Jordan Love did in Green Bay, learning behind a veteran until he's ready to take over.

Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

This could lead to an excellent succession plan for the Falcons, as we've seen with Love, but it's a curious move for a team that appeared ready to contend in 2024.

It also makes Penix Jr. a tough player to value, since we don't know when he'll see the field. While he may sneak into the late first round of dynasty rookie drafts based on this draft capital, he projects more as second-round value to me due to delayed production.

Redraft ranking: QB33
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 9th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.10-2.04

Fantasy stock up: None
Fantasy stock down: None

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (9th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 62 receptions, 837 receiving yards, 3 TDs

The Bears continue to build up their offense, giving new QB Caleb Williams another pass-catcher in Odunze.

While Odunze may not be on the same level as the two wideouts drafted ahead of him, he isn't far off. The only problem will be the target competition in Chicago, as DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are both volume hogs.

For Odunze to truly break out as a rookie, it may require an injury to one of his veteran teammates.

However, even if that doesn't happen, Odunze should be able to produce as a WR4/flex and eventually turn into one of Williams' favorite weapons.

Redraft ranking: WR42
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08

Fantasy stock up: Caleb Williams
Fantasy stock down: Cole Kmet, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (short term)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings (10th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,686 passing yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs
174 rushing yards, 1 TD, 7 FUMs

The Vikings resisted the temptation to make a big move up the board and saved themselves a ton of draft capital by waiting. They moved up one spot in the end to secure the QB they wanted in McCarthy.

The 21-year-old immediately becomes Minnesota's replacement for Cousins and finds himself in an excellent fantasy-production environment.

Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson (when healthy), a good offensive line, and Kevin O'Connell calling plays, McCarthy will be dropped into one of the best situations of any QB in this class.

Given their landing spots, McCarthy has a better chance finding early success than Maye, who was drafted seven spots before him.

If McCarthy can capture some of the magic Cousins had in Minnesota's offense, it's possible he's a top-20 fantasy QB as a rookie - with plenty of room to grow.

Redraft ranking: QB24
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08

Fantasy stock up: J.J. McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy stock down: Sam Darnold

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (12th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection (17 starts): 3,048 passing yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs
219 rushing yards, 7 FUMs

With five quarterbacks already taken, the Broncos weren't willing to risk leaving the draft without a potential starter, which led to overpaying for Nix.

The 24-year-old has loads of experience, but his numbers and performance might have been improved by a favorable system at Oregon.

Whether he can find similar success under Sean Payton in Denver will be one of the most interesting storylines to watch in 2024 - and one that likely won't end well for the Broncos.

While you needn't worry about Nix in normal redraft leagues, he does have value as a late first-round dynasty rookie selection - but don't get your hopes up.

Redraft ranking: QB30
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 8th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.09-2.01

Fantasy stock up: Bo Nix
Fantasy stock down: Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham

Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders (13th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 64 receptions, 819 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Anyone hoping Raiders tight end Michael Mayer was ready for a potential sophomore breakout will need to re-evaluate Mayer's outlook after the Raiders spent their first-round pick on an even better tight end.

There's a case to be made that Bowers is a more versatile pass-catcher and shouldn't be viewed exclusively a tight end. Either way, he's joining an offense that has strong receivers in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers but serious questions at QB.

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

It's a less than ideal landing spot for a promising talent like Bowers and may cap his fantasy projection in the early part of his NFL career, preventing him from challenging the top players at his position.

Thankfully, it doesn't take much to crack the top-12 fantasy tight ends and Bowers still has a shot to do that.

Redraft ranking: TE12
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 4th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.05-1.08

Fantasy stock up: Gardner Minshew/Aidan O'Connell
Fantasy stock down: Michael Mayer

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars (23rd)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 56 receptions, 824 receiving yards, 5 TDs

The Jaguars needed to make a move to bolster their receiving corps following the departure of Calvin Ridley in free agency, and Thomas Jr. brings the exact kind of field-stretching, big-play ability that could take the offense to another level.

His size-speed combination will catch your eye initially, but there's much more to be unlocked in Thomas Jr.'s game.

The 21-year-old will quickly become one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets, and he has the potential to be the long-term No. 1 option in the Jags' passing attack if his skills continue to evolve.

Thomas Jr. has a legitimate chance to outproduce Odunze during their rookie seasons given their landing spots and target competition (and potentially even during their NFL careers). Consider Thomas Jr. a WR4/flex with a ton of upside this year.

Redraft ranking: WR41
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 5th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.08-1.10

Fantasy stock up: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr.
Fantasy stock down: Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Gabe Davis, Zay Jones, Parker Washington

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (28th)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 54 receptions, 794 receiving yards, 4 TDs

The Chiefs moved up a handful of spots to make sure they came away with another receiver for Patrick Mahomes.

With a Rashee Rice suspension looming and Travis Kelce not getting any younger, Kansas City adds another speedster to join free-agent acquisition Marquise Brown.

Considering the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in a year in which their only real outside weapon was a rookie who came on late in the season, and considering they'll now field a quality three-receiver set, it's scary to think what's in store for 2024.

Worthy's blistering 40-yard dash time and new connection with Mahomes will likely mean he'll be overvalued in Year 1, but there's a realistic chance he becomes a meaningful part of K.C.'s offense. I'd rather have Odunze and Thomas Jr., but Worthy's much closer to them in value now.

Redraft ranking: WR49
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 6th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.09-1.11

Fantasy stock up: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy
Fantasy stock down: Marquise Brown

Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers (31st)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 21 receptions, 293 receiving yards, 2 TDs

This seems like an odd investment for the 49ers on the surface - unless the rumors about trading either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel are true.

For the time being, we have to evaluate Pearsall with the current roster in mind, and that doesn't leave him much room for fantasy stats. Aiyuk, Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle leave only scraps for the rest of the Niners' skill position players and Pearsall isn't talented enough to overtake them without an injury.

In fact, it may take two of those four stars being hurt in order for Pearsall to attain fantasy relevance as a rookie - unless a trade occurs.

That said, this draft capital and landing spot make Pearsall a much more intriguing asset in dynasty formats and could make him worthy of an early second-round pick.

Redraft ranking: WR83
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 9th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 1.12-2.04

Fantasy stock up: Ricky Pearsall (if 49ers trade a WR)
Fantasy stock down: Jauan Jennings, Ronnie Bell

Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers (32nd)

Fantasy potential:
2024 projection: 39 receptions, 568 receiving yards, 3 TDs

In the lead-up to the draft, Legette told reporters the Panthers promised to take him if he was available at the start of the second round.

Turns out they didn't want to wait.

Carolina moved back into the first round to lock down Legette, a strong, fast wideout with reliable hands.

The need for help at receiver was evident with Adam Thielen turning 34 this summer and Jonathan Mingo failing to make his mark as a rookie. Legette will try to earn the No. 2 role alongside Diontae Johnson in an offense that has renewed hope thanks to the arrival of head coach Dave Canales.

Even so, fantasy managers should keep their expectations in check for Legette, a one-year college wonder who has a long way to go in his development.

Redraft ranking: WR65
Dynasty startup value (Superflex): 9th-round pick
Dynasty rookie value (Superflex): 2.01-2.04

Fantasy stock up: Bryce Young
Fantasy stock down: Jonathan Mingo, Adam Thielen

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theScore's Justin Boone was first overall in FantasyPros' Most Accurate Expert Competition in 2019 and finished among the top seven each of his last seven years in the contest.

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