Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Monday prognosis for 2023 finalists

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Staying patient is the hardest thing to do when betting the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Monday night's matchups drill home that point.

After closing at -105 on the moneyline in Game 3, the Lightning were +115 as the puck dropped in Game 4, a price across our threshold of +104 that we considered valuable before the series. That's a 5% shift in implied win probability after they lost a game that was 1.46-1.44 in even-strength expected goals.

Trying to predict which goaltender will come up big isn't easy. We were concerned about Andrei Vasilevskiy after a poor Game 3, and he didn't play particularly well in Game 4, registering a -0.58 GSAx. However, Sergei Bobrovsky was suddenly bad, going from 1.85 GSAx through three games to -2.03 on Saturday.

With our buy price on Tampa being +146, we took +160 with the Lightning for Game 2 in Sunrise - an overtime loss - so there's no reason not to try the underdogs again at +155. Bobrovsky and the Panthers will likely bring back their best effort, but at +155, we play the valuable side.

Best bet: Lightning moneyline (+155)

Even in a loss, the Golden Knights continue to baffle. A 4.62-1.3 differential in even-strength expected goals and 23-4 disparity in high-danger chances (HDC) surpasses last week's Islanders-Hurricanes Game 2 as the most lopsided contest of the postseason. But the Islanders were resorting to a defensive shell against the better team, protecting a lead on the road. What's the Golden Knights' excuse for a first period in which they allowed 11 HDC?

The most vexing part is that the Stars needed overtime to get their first win of the series after a shorthanded goal tied the game and Logan Thompson made 43 saves.

Through three games, the Stars have 46 HDC at even strength and the Knights have 19. Who are we supposed to think is the better team?

Of course, you're allowed to have a good goaltender. But Thompson's 4.54 GSAx to Jake Oettinger's minus-1.53 infers that the goal differential in this series should be six goals further in favor of Dallas. Can Thompson keep this up?

If Thompson was a star with a track record of stealing games, that would be one thing. But he came into his first Stanley Cup Playoffs with 96 career starts and a 2.67 goals against average and .912 save percentage.

Betting against the Golden Knights is a miserable experience, but there's no reasonable case for backing a team that mustered one even-strength HDC in 36 minutes across the third period and overtime.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-115)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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