Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Monday's home teams face all the pressure

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In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there's no such thing as a comfortable situation - let alone in the latter half of a series. Every game is pivotal.

Even though they're at different stages and have different series scores, Monday's home teams are surely feeling the pressure.

The Rangers are in unfamiliar territory, coming off their first playoff loss of 2024, so why should their position - still up 3-1 - feel precarious?

It starts with the moneyline pricing for Game 5. Like Games 1 and 2 in New York, the odds amount to a coin-flip proposition. Looking at the even-strength metrics for the previous contests at Madison Square Garden, the Rangers deserved a Game 1 win 51% of the time, and the Hurricanes deserved Game 2 about 52% of the time. The betting market can be stubborn, but 50/50 pricing feels appropriate even though New York won both times (the latter in double overtime).

Goaltending was the difference in the first two contests. In Game 1, Frederik Andersen disappointed for Carolina. In Game 2, Igor Shesterkin was better by an eyelash in an outing marked by great saves on both sides.

The market reacted to a slight overpricing of Carolina in the opening moneyline odds for Game 3, driving the Canes from -170 to -150. Shesterkin stole the matchup with 2.37 goals saved above expected (GSAx), but his Game 4 numbers resembled those from Game 1. With two outstanding games and two average ones from the Russian netminder, predicting his play this series also seems like a 50/50 proposition.

Since we can't earnestly do that, we must continue to value what's happening at even strength. The Hurricanes have limited the Rangers' key weapon - the man advantage - by not giving up a power-play goal since Game 2's tying goal and taking just one penalty this past Saturday.

For all of Shesterkin's greatness, the Hurricanes are scoring on 17.4% of their even-strength high-danger chances (league average: 12.5%), while creating nine more than the Rangers this series. Carolina's historical issue of not converting its best scoring opportunities clearly doesn't apply in Round 2.

Most of that discrepancy came in Raleigh, confirming that the Hurricanes should be able to force a Game 7 if they can extend the series Monday night. This means the Rangers should feel pressure to close out Carolina at home. But we'll bet against New York getting the job done.

Best bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-110)

The Stars' underlying metrics suggest they were a better collective team than the Avalanche in the regular season. But Game 1 tried to trick us.

Dallas was gifted three goals in the first period even though the team didn't generate a high-danger chance until the third period (and just one before overtime). In hindsight, a Colorado comeback was inevitable. Then, an experienced Stars group bounced back nicely for a well-earned win in Game 2.

All square at one, both teams played arguably their best game of the series in Game 3, but Jake Oettinger (1.86 GSAx) outplayed Alexandar Georgiev (0.87 GSAx).

Now the tables have turned. Like the Rangers, the Avalanche won't be eliminated with a loss on Monday, but things would look pretty dicey.

Like the Hurricanes, the Avalanche have an advantage in even-strength high-danger chances (28-16). Looking at Colorado's body of work in the playoffs, the team deserves credit for upping its level from the end of the regular season.

A -140 price on the moneyline suggests a 58.3% implied win probability, which is worth a bet if we're near 60% sure that Colorado evens the series at home. And betting on a team with that kind of star power and ample experience of its own is a good gamble.

Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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