NFL 2024 schedule release: Dissecting Week 1's opening lines
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Following the slow-drip release of the NFL schedule Wednesday, oddsmakers put together point spreads for Week 1 and many of this year's most notable games.
There's little risk in offering low-limit wagers for contests nearly four months away since bettors will anxiously register their opinion, giving oddsmakers an even better understanding of how the market feels about each team beyond how they've been bet in long-ago-released regular-season win-total markets.
Team ratingsHere's a refresher on how we used the regular-season win-total market to create a power rating (out of 100) for each NFL team, accounting for their strength of schedule.
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | RATING (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.5 (-120) | 71 |
| Ravens | 11.5 (+115) | 71 |
| Bengals | 10.5 (-125) | 71 |
| 49ers | 11.5 (+115) | 67 |
| Lions | 10.5 (-115) | 65 |
| Bills | 10.5 (-130) | 63 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 (+100) | 62 |
| Eagles | 10.5 (+110) | 62 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 (-150) | 62 |
| Packers | 9.5 (-140) | 61 |
| Jets | 9.5 (+100) | 61 |
| Texans | 9.5 (-110) | 60 |
| Falcons | 9.5 (-140) | 58 |
| Browns | 8.5 (-120) | 58 |
| Steelers | 8.5 (-110) | 57 |
| Bears | 8.5 (-125) | 56 |
| Chargers | 8.5 (-135) | 55 |
| Rams | 8.5 (-120) | 54 |
| Jaguars | 8.5 (-125) | 52 |
| Colts | 8.5 (+110) | 49 |
| Seahawks | 7.5 (-125) | 48 |
| Buccaneers | 7.5 (-150) | 47 |
| Saints | 7.5 (-120) | 44 |
| Cardinals | 6.5 (-130) | 43 |
| Vikings | 6.5 (-140) | 42 |
| Raiders | 6.5 (-140) | 42 |
| Commanders | 6.5 (-130) | 39 |
| Giants | 6.5 (+110) | 38 |
| Titans | 6.5 (+115) | 37 |
| Broncos | 5.5 (-150) | 36 |
| Patriots | 4.5 (-145) | 30 |
| Panthers | 4.5 (-135) | 27 |
Using a point-spread scale of 27 - the highest conceivable point spread for two teams in 2024 - each club's rating percentage is multiplied into 27. The difference, plus home-field advantage, should be the projected point spread.
Week 1 opening lines| MATCHUP | RATING | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs | BAL (19.2) | |
| KC (19.2) | KC -2.5 | |
| Packers vs. Eagles (Brazil) | GB (16.6) | |
| PHI (16.7) | PHI -1.5 | |
| Steelers @ Falcons | PIT (15.4) | |
| ATL (15.7) | ATL -3 | |
| Cardinals @ Bills | AZ (11.6) | |
| BUF (16.9) | BUF -7 | |
| Titans @ Bears | TEN (9.9) | |
| CHI (15.1) | CHI -5 | |
| Patriots @ Bengals | NE (8.2) | |
| CIN (19.4) | CIN -8 | |
| Texans @ Colts | HOU (16.1) | |
| IND (13.1) | HOU -1.5 | |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | JAX (14.0) | |
| MIA (16.8) | MIA -3.5 | |
| Panthers @ Saints | CAR (7.4) | |
| NO (11.9) | NO -4.5 | |
| Vikings @ Giants | MIN (11.3) | |
| NYG (10.1) | MIN PK | |
| Raiders @ Chargers | LV (11.3) | |
| LAC (15.0) | LAC -3 | |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | DEN (9.7) | |
| SEA (13.1) | SEA -4.5 | |
| Commanders @ Buccaneers | WSH (10.5) | |
| TB (12.6) | TB -4 | |
| Cowboys @ Browns | DAL (16.7) | |
| CLE (15.5) | DAL PK | |
| Rams @ Lions | LAR (14.7) | |
| DET (17.5) | DET -3.5 | |
| Jets @ 49ers | NYJ (16.3) | |
| SF (18.0) | SF -5.5 |
The Chiefs opened as a 3-point favorite in their season-opening game against the Ravens. Instinctively, that line was deemed too high and was quickly adjusted to Chiefs -2.5 or Ravens +3 (-120).
The Eagles are getting a little more credit than they deserve against the Packers considering the two teams have similar win totals and will play in a neutral-site game.
The only reason to make a bet now is to secure a key number that seems valuable. The Steelers (+3) appear likely to draw enough money in their opener in Atlanta to take them off the most crucial number in football betting.
Buffalo's win total has dropped by around 0.8 wins since the team traded Stefon Diggs. Like many of Week 1's games, extrapolating from the win-total market is fair for Buffalo's matchup with Arizona.
It's a minor surprise that the Bears aren't lined higher against the Titans, the league's fourth-worst-rated team, given all the excitement about Chicago's offseason additions. However, laying a big number with an unproven commodity is rarely a good idea.
Similarly, the Bengals are projected to win 11 games this season out of the tough AFC North based on their win total. Their -8 line seems short against the Patriots, unless Cincinnati's win total is too high to begin with.
Betting on the Saints as a favorite was a losing proposition last season, which might be why their line seems a little short against Carolina. The Panthers have a fresh outlook with new head coach Dave Canales, which might prevent this line from moving closer to +6.
Speaking of fresh looks, there's no reason not to grab the Chargers at -3 (-110) given the Jim Harbaugh-Antonio Pierce coaching matchup. Even with little-to-no home-field advantage, they're an estimated 3.7 points better than the Raiders.
Aaron Rodgers brings the Jets into the Bay Area as more of an underdog than what each team's win total would suggest. However, bettors looking to back New York can wait and see if a +6 shows up this summer. Remember, 5.5 isn't a key number, and +4.5 isn't likely to be the difference between a win or loss.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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