Fantasy: 2024 strength of schedule matrix
by Justin Boone from on (#6MWX3)
The fantasy strength of schedule matrix is used to determine the overall difficulty of players' matchups from Week 1 to Week 17.
The No. 1-ranked team is forecasted to see the easiest slate, while the No. 32-rated side will face defenses projected to allow the fewest fantasy points to that position.
Our model considers several variables, including historical defensive data, offseason roster changes, new coaching staffs, home/road splits, individual player matchups, and more.
Don't decide whether to draft someone based on this table. Rather, it should serve as an additional data point to help break ties between players you're considering. The impact on players at the extremes (green or red) will be far greater than the differences among those in the middle range (yellow).
Fantasy Strength of ScheduleQuarterbacks- The debate over how many fantasy starters Caleb Williams will be able to support during his rookie season will continue through the summer. Thankfully, he gets the easiest fantasy slate among all quarterbacks in 2024. The 22-year-old is already a top-12 fantasy QB in my rankings, and this schedule makes me more willing to invest in D.J. Moore, D'Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze - in that order.
- Jordan Love is coming off a breakout campaign (QB6 in fantasy points per game), aided by the softest passing schedule available. He isn't topping the list this year, but he's not far off, landing the third-easiest collection of opponents. Love is safely inside my top-10 QBs.
- Don't overreact to star quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Joe Burrow being orange or red in the table above. Every one of those passers can overcome bad matchups given their high-end abilities and the talent around them.
- In addition to a new coaching staff and a major upgrade at quarterback, Bijan Robinson gets the benefit of the No. 1 schedule for fantasy backs this season. Though he looked like a superstar during his rookie year, the first-rounder was a statistical disappointment - finishing as the RB17. Barring an injury, he's guaranteed to improve on those numbers and should be viewed as a top-five back in all formats.
- Isiah Pacheco has been a riser this offseason after the Chiefs let Jerick McKinnon leave (even giving away his former jersey number) and only brought back Clyde Edwards-Helaire to serve as the immediate backup. Pacheco is set up for a significant workload while taking on the fourth-easiest schedule for fantasy backs. Don't be surprised if he has a career year and posts top-12 fantasy running back production.
- After signing with the Packers, Josh Jacobs was in line for a massive workload in one of the best young offenses in the league. Since then, Green Bay drafted a potential backfield companion for him in MarShawn Lloyd and he was handed the most difficult schedule of any ball carrier in 2024. Jacobs still should flirt with low-end RB1 fantasy stats, but his path to glory has become more challenging.
- Garrett Wilson's entry into the elite fantasy receiver club was delayed a year after Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury last September. With his veteran QB healthy and a top-five fantasy schedule at his position, Wilson is about to join the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson in the eyes of fantasy managers. If you're not targeting him in the late-first or early-second round, you're doing it wrong.
- Similar to Wilson, Drake London was in a holding pattern while the Falcons tried to figure out their quarterback situation. But Kirk Cousins has arrived (with Michael Penix Jr. backing him up), giving Atlanta one of the better QB rooms in the entire league. On top of that, London will take advantage of the fifth-easiest fantasy slate for wideouts en route to a breakout campaign.
- It was great to see George Pickens silence the doubters with a 1,140-yard, five-touchdown season last year. However, he's facing various changes entering his third NFL campaign: learning new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system, a new quarterback room with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, Diontae Johnson's departure, and the hardest fantasy WR schedule. It's too early to know whether the QB upgrade and potential for increased targets will offset Smith's sometimes questionable play-calling and the problematic schedule. But I'm still willing to invest in a 23-year-old who has yet to reach his ceiling.
- Top tight ends like Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts all landed top-10 fantasy schedules for 2024, making them even more attractive draft targets this season.
- Green Bay's tight ends will have the second-friendliest opponents this season. The problem is that we don't know which sophomore will see more work: Luke Musgrave - the starter early last year before getting hurt - or Tucker Kraft, who stepped up in his absence. A rotation is also possible, potentially removing both players from the fantasy conversation. Monitor the situation this summer.
- Acquiring pieces of the Texans' offense is wise, but don't target Dalton Schultz. The veteran tight end had most of his best fantasy performances last year when injuries hit the receiving corps. That depth chart is now healthy and added another star in Stefon Diggs. To make matters worse, Schultz will face the most difficult slate of any tight end in 2024. There are much better upside fantasy options to chase than Schultz.
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