Biden is dramatically out of touch with voters on Gaza. He may lose because of it | Moira Donegan

The president's shedding key constituencies. If morality won't move him to end his support of this war, will self-interest?

Joe Biden's re-election team is playing it cool. The Biden campaign has long been shrugging at the president's fading polls, turning down opportunities to put him in front of voters, and generally doing their best to portray an air of confident nonchalance. The campaign's apparent lack of concern seems, or perhaps is meant to seem, like an expression of certainty in the outcome: that Biden will win re-election, and that it won't be close. They want us to think that they've got it in the bag.

They do not. Biden is in no way guaranteed re-election, and all available information suggests that the contest will be close. Donald Trump has been narrowly but consistently ahead in national polls. A new dataset released by the New York Times on 13 May found that Biden was trailing in five key swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania - and suffering from disillusionment among young voters as well as Black and Latino ones.

Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist