Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: What's worth wagering in trio of weekend games
Both conference finals are guaranteed to see a Game 6, meaning we get a full weekend of hockey action. Whether that translates to a Game 7 or two is still to be determined, and given the knife's edge all of these games have teetered on, that proposition isn't worth betting. However, we continue to feel stronger about one side of the bracket than the other.
Game 5: Oilers (+110) @ Stars (-130)Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
To paraphrase "Rowdy" Roddy Piper, when it comes to betting hockey, just when we think we have the answer, the question changes. By expecting the Oilers' best effort in Game 4, we avoided a losing bet on the Stars, but how it played out was a twist. Dallas got a drastically different start than it's used to, jumping to an early 2-0 lead, only for the Oilers to storm back with five unanswered.
While Edmonton was the better team, scoring on three of just seven even-strength high-danger chances on Jake Oettinger is an outlier, and we would've expected more chance generation from the Oilers.
With the scene shifting back to Dallas and the series level, the expectation for Friday remains that the Stars' even-strength play will get better, Dallas should eventually score on the power play, and Oettinger will prove to be the difference after he produced a subpar minus-0.73 GSAx in Game 4.
Best bet: Stars moneyline (-130)
Game 6: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-175)Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Suppose this is the end of the line for the Rangers, who've survived on the age-old recipe of timely scoring and excellent goaltending. In that case, the blame will fall squarely on two players who account for roughly $20 million of New York's salary allotment, as Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad have gone scoreless in a series that's been essentially five one-goal games.
If converting a high rate of their relatively few scoring chances is the plan, when your best scorers don't produce at all, things fall apart, results become less predictable, and any value in betting the Rangers goes away.
With a 4.93 GSAx on the series - two expected goals saved more than Sergei Bobrovsky - Igor Shesterkin has held up his end of the bargain, which is why these games have been so close.
The Panthers needed a second try in elimination games for each of their previous two series, but the concerning part for the Rangers is that after a strong first period and taking the lead in Game 5, Florida had 10 more high-danger chances (15-5) at even strength in the final two periods.
Odds of -175 have always been a steep price to pay on Florida in a series that's been so close on the scoreboard, but there's no reason to chase a bet on the underdog. If anything, under 5.5 goals - a bet against the Rangers to generate offense and on Shesterkin to continue to stand tall - is interesting, but with that priced at -135, the juice may not be worth the squeeze. We're staying away from betting this game.
Game 6 (projected line): Stars (+110) @ Oilers (-130)Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
Win or lose in Game 5, the Stars will be the play for Sunday's Game 6. On top of their excellent road resume outlined in this space throughout the playoffs, Dallas also owns an 8-4 record in series Games 5-7 over the last two seasons.
The Stars have been the underdog in both games in Edmonton, so we'll project that to be the case regardless of Friday's result, backing Dallas to either close out the Oilers or force a Game 7.
Best bet: Stars moneyline (Even money or better)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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