Macron thought he could defeat Le Pen by shifting right. Instead, he has emboldened her | Didier Fassin

The president's hazardous strategy has failed. Now France stands on the brink of its first far-right government since 1945

The image was an oxymoron. Earlier this month, in a luxurious Parisian venue, Emmanuel Macron stood in front of a white wall on which one word was inscribed in large letters: ensemble, meaning together". Estranged from the members of his own party, and even from his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who had not been informed of his plans, Macron was attempting to convince his audience that his dramatic decision to dissolve parliament and hold snap elections - something that almost everyone else regarded as a risky poker move - was in fact the right decision for the country.

Yet Macron's decision couldn't have come at a worse moment. The coalition including his party, Renaissance, suffered defeat in the European elections in early June: its 14.6% score was dwarfed by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), which won 31.4% of the vote. Not only is the presidential alliance almost certain to lose its relative majority of 250 seats in the parliament, but the far-right party will undoubtedly increase its current tally of 89 seats. To win an absolute majority, RN, joined by a dissident group from the Republicans, would need to secure 289 seats. Even if it doesn't win an absolute majority, it could still become the largest party in the country and thus have its president, Jordan Bardella, named prime minister.

Didier Fassin is professor of social sciences at the College de France and the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton