NHL free-agency analysis: Breaking down Monday's moves

The NHL free-agent market officially opened July 1 at noon ET. Below, theScore's lead hockey writer John Matisz breaks down the day's biggest moves that dropped before 5 p.m.

Hurricanes sign D Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Walker

Carolina's gained a reputation for letting pending UFAs sign elsewhere if the bidding gets out of hand. A recent change at the GM level - Don Waddell out, Eric Tulsky in - hasn't altered the approach. Jake Guentzel, Stefan Noesen, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, and Teuvo Teravainen all inked big free-agent contracts with other clubs. Gostisbehere (three years, $3.2-million AAV) and Walker (five years, $3.6-million AAV) were signed to replace Pesce and Skjei. Depth forwards William Carrier, Tyson Jost, and Eric Robinson are also aboard, while Jaccob Slavin and Jordan Martinook had their contracts extended. Still to come this offseason: a Martin Necas trade and a Seth Jarvis extension. On the whole, the Hurricanes essentially replaced the defensive talent they lost, but they aren't as deadly offensively, though they still have lots of cap space ($11 million). If they intend on challenging for the Cup in 2024-25, they need to flip Necas for at least one impact NHL forward.

Canadiens re-sign F Juraj Slafkovsky to 8-year deal

The first thought that pops into my head: Damn, $60.8 million is a crazy amount for a player who's appeared in only 121 NHL games. The second thought: If Slafkovsky continues to progress and hits star status in Montreal, a $7.6-million AAV will be peanuts in a few years. It's important to remember that this deal doesn't kick in until 2025-26. By then, the cap will be around $90 million. After an underwhelming debut, Slafkovsky worked out the kinks and finished with 50 points as a sophomore. He's developing into the power forward the Canadiens dreamed of when they made him the 2022 draft's top pick. The Habs now have Slafkovsky at a controlled number for the bulk of his prime; he doesn't turn 21 until next March. This proactive move by GM Kent Hughes definitely carries risk (what if Slafkovsky doesn't reach his ceiling?) but I'm betting the Canadiens looked at Jack Hughes' contract with the Devils (eight years and $64 million, signed in 2021) and wondered if they could pull off something similar.

Leafs sign D Oliver Ekman-Larsson to 4-year deal

On one hand, four years and $3.5 million annually is a bit rich for a guy who'll likely play on the third pair and second power-play unit. On the other hand, given the volume of crazy contracts handed out this July 1, Ekman-Larsson at that cap number and term is probably justifiable. Toronto's blue line now features Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit, Ekman-Larsson, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins - a slightly above-average group, in my opinion. Looking purely at additions and subtractions (versus the financial commitments), GM Brad Treliving's done alright these past couple of days. Max Domi extended; Tanev and Ekman-Larsson added on defense; Anthony Stolarz reeled in to push newly extended starter Joseph Woll; and Matt Murray brought back for goaltending insurance. Tyler Bertuzzi is off to Chicago, but it could have been a lot worse.

Kraken sign F Chandler Stephenson to 7-year deal

Stephenson was a bargain for a while, making $2.75 million a year in Vegas. Good for him to get a substantial raise - $6.25-million AAV - while also scoring a seven-year commitment from Seattle, but this isn't great for the Kraken. While Stephenson is a perfectly fine top-nine forward, he's the wrong kind of player to allocate so much money and term to. Best-case scenario: He's a speedy second-line center who puts up 50-60 points. The more likely scenario, especially in the contract's back half: third-line center with 30-40 points. Yes, the cap's rising, but between this contract and Montour's, the Kraken seem to be overstretching themselves.

Flyers sign F Matvei Michkov to entry-level deal

Philadelphia started free agency with little fanfare, inking veterans Garnet Hathaway and Erik Johnson to two- and one-year extensions. Then, Monday afternoon, the Flyers announced Michkov's three-year deal and the fan base rejoiced. Flyers GM Daniel Briere took a home-run swing on Michkov at the 2023 draft, selecting him seventh overall despite concerns about an inflexible KHL contract and his willingness to play in North America. It turns out the 19-year-old's pumped to join a core that lacks exactly what he brings: high-end offensive skill and game-breaking ability. Michkov had 19 goals and 22 assists in 48 KHL contests last season. He'll challenge for the Calder Trophy.

Canucks sign F Jake DeBrusk to 7-year deal

This signing - seven years at $5.5 million per - is one of my favorites of the day. DeBrusk never posted monster counting stats during his seven-year Boston tenure (career-high 50 points in 2022-23), but he's long had strong underlying numbers, is coming off a strong postseason, and should fit seamlessly into Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet's system. DeBrusk should thrive in the top six alongside either Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller. He's solid defensively, gets up and down the line easily, and has the perfect personality to deal with the fishbowl that is Vancouver's market.

Blue Jackets sign F Sean Monahan to 5-year deal Darcy Finley / Getty Images

I like this bet by Columbus. Monahan, locked in for five years at a $5.5-million cap hit, complements the Blue Jackets' other top centers (Adam Fantilli and Boone Jenner) well. Last season, he posted his highest points per game since 2018-19 while proving he can avoid injury. The deal reunites 29-year-old Monahan with old Flames teammate Johnny Gaudreau, and the lengthy commitment provides stability after Monahan was traded twice in two years, first from Calgary to Montreal and then from Montreal to Winnipeg.

Bruins sign F Elias Lindholm, D Nikita Zadorov long term

Boston brings in Lindholm for seven years at $7.75 million per season and Zadorov for six years at $5 million per. These contracts sum up the opening 90 minutes of free agency well: significant term for a good but not great skater in his late 20s or early 30s. I'll give the Lindholm deal a C+ grade and Zadorov a C-. These are players you want to sign; they can help you win. The hulking Zadorov deepens the blue line, and I especially like the idea of having a 1-2-3 two-way center punch of Lindholm, Charlie Coyle, and Pavel Zacha. Zoom out, though, and both are overcommitments, and could become deals a GM regrets handing out two or three years down the road and then surrenders assets to get rid of.

Preds sign Stamkos, Marchessault, Skjei

Here comes Nashville. A year after surprising the hockey world by adding Ryan O'Reilly and Luke Schenn in free agency, GM Barry Trotz lands multiple marquee names. Stamkos is leaving the Lightning, the only team he's ever known, for a four-year contract carrying an $8-million AAV. Marchessault, an original Golden Knight, is on board on a five-year, $5.5-million AAV deal. Skjei, arguably the best left-handed defenseman on the market, signs for seven years at $7M annually. That's a ton of term and money for three players in their 30s, but I don't consider it reckless spending. Nashville's books were previously pretty clean and, remember, this is a 25-year-old franchise that's never really pushed its chips to the middle. Head coach Andrew Brunette's forward group now has two proven finishers to play alongside O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg, and a handful of youngsters. Skjei can lessen Roman Josi's heavy workload. Huge promise.

Capitals sign D Matt Roy, trade for D Jakob Chychrun

Roy arrives in Washington on a seven-year deal carrying a $5.75-million AAV. The term's too long, but Roy had leverage as a right-handed shutdown defenseman. Chychrun, a pending 2025 UFA, arrives on a $4.6-million cap hit following a trade that sent Nick Jensen and a third-round pick to Ottawa -a swap that's a win for Washington every day of the week. Big picture, GM Brian MacLellan is on a mission to turn the Capitals into a Cup contender in the final years of Alex Ovechkin's storied career. There's no denying these two transactions - plus recent acquisitions of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, and Logan Thompson - give Washington a better shot at realizing that goal. The key word here is "shot," because this roster still looks closer to middling than elite. But I can't blame MacLellan for trying. Being aggressive is the right strategy for him; he can deal with a messy cap situation when Ovechkin's gone and it's rebuild time.

Sharks sign F Tyler Toffoli to 4-year deal Brian Babineau / National Hockey League / Getty

The Sharks were borderline unwatchable last season, so the bar's extremely low, but GM Mike Grier has made some nice additions over the past week. Toffoli, who'll make $6 million annually, joins fellow newcomers Jake Walman, Barclay Goodrow, and Ty Dellandrea. Grier doesn't want high-end rookies Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith to have no support. Toffoli's the best of the bunch, scoring 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. At 32, he may have just signed the last multi-year contract of his career, and it's certainly the heftiest at $24 million. Make no mistake, though, Toffoli doesn't make San Jose a playoff team. The Sharks will be a lottery team again and it won't be close.

Oilers re-sign F Connor Brown to 1-year deal

Value. Give it a few months and this one-year, $1-million deal could very well be one of the offseason's true bargains. Brown tore his ACL in 2022-23 while playing for the Capitals. He inked a one-year, bonus-heavy deal with Edmonton, but it took basically the entire regular season for him to get back to speed and start contributing. The right winger had a strong playoff run, registering five points in the final two rounds in a depth role. The Oilers are clearly banking on Playoff Brown, whose first deal with Edmonton included $3.55 million in bonuses, all of which carry over to 2024-25. That bit of context partially explains the low AAV this time around.

Kraken sign D Brandon Montour to 7-year deal

This contract carries a $7.14-million AAV and is a classic case of: "If the cap continues to rise as expected, no worries, but if it doesn't rise as expected, uh oh." Montour's a right-handed top-four defenseman who impacts the game through his physical tools, like skating, shooting, and body checking. If those diminish as he ages (Montour's already 30 and started last season injured), all of a sudden he's a third-pairing defenseman making top-pair money. Still, I understand the play here by GM Ron Francis. The Kraken's defense corps is filled with big dudes. It needed another dynamic guy to complement offense-driving Vince Dunn. After stints in Anaheim, Buffalo, and Florida, Montour's on to his fourth NHL team a week after winning the Cup.

Maple Leafs re-sign G Joseph Woll to 3-year deal

Can Woll stay healthy? That's the main question here, because based solely on on-ice performance and his upward trajectory, the 25-year-old deserves this deal, which includes a $3.66-million AAV. In fact, if Woll's healthy, we may be calling this contract an underpayment by Year 2. Woll's a rare goalie development success story for the Leafs and is now their starter of the present and future. As of this writing, Toronto doesn't have a backup, though Laurent Brossoit or Anthony Stolarz appear to be targets. Woll with either is a solid tandem.

Devils sign D Brett Pesce, D Brenden Dillon

New Jersey isn't messing around. After a disappointing 2023-24, GM Tom Fitzgerald reshaped his blue line with a trade Sunday night (he acquired Johnathan Kovacevic from Montreal) and these two signings. Pesce's contract is for six years with a $5.5-million AAV, while Dillon's is four years, $4 million AAV. I'm fine with the commitments to the large, reliable veterans. The left side of the Devils' back end now features Luke Hughes, Dillon, and Jonas Siegenthaler. The right side is Dougie Hamilton, Pesce, and Simon Nemec. Kovacevic is a quality seventh guy with some upside. Further, 2022 second-rounder Seamus Casey, a righty, is progressing well, too. Toss in the acquisition of starting goalie Jacob Markstrom and hiring of coach Sheldon Keefe and New Jersey - which had the sixth-worst defense last year - should allow significantly fewer goals next season.

Leafs sign D Chris Tanev to 6-year deal Matthew Stockman / Getty Images

Tanev's one of the NHL's best pure defenders. He fills a gaping hole on Toronto's right blue line. The $4.5-million AAV is tolerable in an $88-million cap world. In other words, I get why the Maple Leafs pulled the trigger: the fit between player and team is undeniable. But, boy, that term is scary, especially since the contract includes a full no-move clause. While Tanev has aged exceptionally well for a defensive defenseman who blocks a ton of shots, at some point he'll hit his decline. He turns 35, not 25, in December - the second half of this contract won't be pretty. Yet GM Brad Treliving - Tanev's old boss in Calgary - surely doesn't care, as he's attempting to win a Cup while superstar Auston Matthews remains in his prime, and this deal brings the Leafs closer to that goal (at least on paper).

Blackhawks sign F Tyler Bertuzzi to 4-year deal

File this one under the "Blackhawks needed to give Connor Bedard better options for linemates" category. Good for Bertuzzi, who will be making a career-high $5.5 million a year moving forward. Factor in the allure of potentially playing with a special player in Bedard and there's no mystery as to why Bertuzzi chose Chicago over a long line of suitors. The 29-year-old is a hard-working winger with a scoring touch and jam - two things the roster severely lacks. Fun fact: Chicago is Bertuzzi's fourth Original Six team.

Lightning sign F Jake Guentzel to 7-year deal

Tampa Bay, who acquired Guentzel in a Sunday night trade, locks up one of the most coveted free agents. The $9-million average annual value has some sticker shock, but it's a fair number given Guentzel's track record (four-time 30-goal scorer, clutch in the playoffs, good defensively). Guentzel will be 30 when the 2024-25 season starts and 37 when this deal expires, so there's some risk baked into the signing. That said, Guentzel profiles as the type of guy who'll buck the aging curve and continue to produce in his mid-30s. He's an extremely smart winger who consistently finds open ice near the opposing team's net. He and Zach Hyman tied for the league lead in expected goals per game last season. The only potential issue with this splashy signing is what's been lost elsewhere on the roster. The Lightning already traded top-four defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to clear cap space and will likely lose franchise icon Steven Stamkos in free agency. I don't know if they've improved overall, yet I assume GM Julien BriseBois isn't done for the day.

Panthers re-sign F Sam Reinhart to 8-year deal

Compromise. That's what this deal is all about. Reinhart is coming off a career year of 57 goals and 94 points. Had he tested the open market, he would have been in line for a much higher AAV than what he ultimately signed for - $8.625 million. But Reinhart wanted to stay in Florida, and the Stanley Cup champion Panthers wanted to fit him into their internal cap structure. So, the player gets the maximum amount of years and the team gets a lower AAV. Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Gustav Forsling are now all signed through at least 2029-30 - and none are overpaid. That's some savvy cap management by general manager Bill Zito. Reinhart, who turns 29 in November, may never score 50 goals again. But if he can pot 40 a year for the next few while continuing to be one of the best defensive forwards in hockey, the first half of this deal will look like a serious bargain.

Copyright (C) 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.