Goldman Research Head Skeptical on AI Returns Despite Massive Spend

Goldman Sachs' head of global equity research Jim Covello has expressed skepticism about the potential returns from AI technology, despite an estimated $1 trillion in planned industry investment over the coming years. In a recent report [PDF], Covello argued that AI applications must solve complex, high-value problems to justify their substantial costs, which he believes the technology is not currently designed to do. "AI technology is exceptionally expensive, and to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isn't designed to do," Covello said. Unlike previous technological revolutions like e-commerce, which provided low-cost solutions from the start, AI remains prohibitively expensive even for basic tasks, he said. Covello also questioned whether AI costs would decline sufficiently over time, citing potential lack of competition in critical components like GPU chips. The Goldman executive also expressed doubt about AI's ability to boost company valuations, arguing that efficiency gains would likely be competed away and that the path to revenue growth remains unclear. Despite the skepticism, Covello acknowledged that substantial AI infrastructure spending will continue in the near term due to competitive pressures and investor expectations.

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