US Solar Production Soars By 25 Percent In Just One Year

Yesterday, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) released electricity generation numbers for the first five months of 2024, revealing that solar power generation increased by 25% compared to the same period last year. Ars Technica's John Timmer reports: The EIA breaks down solar production according to the size of the plant. Large grid-scale facilities have their production tracked, giving the EIA hard numbers. For smaller installations, like rooftop solar on residential and commercial buildings, the agency has to estimate the amount produced, since the hardware often resides behind the metering equipment, so only shows up via lower-than-expected consumption. In terms of utility-scale production, the first five months of 2024 saw it rise by 29 percent compared to the same period in the year prior. Small-scale solar was "only" up by 18 percent, with the combined number rising by 25.3 percent. Most other generating sources were largely flat, year over year. This includes coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric, all of which changed by 2 percent or less. Wind was up by 4 percent, while natural gas rose by 5 percent. Because natural gas is the largest single source of energy on the grid, however, its 5 percent rise represents a lot of electrons -- slightly more than the total increase in wind and solar. Overall, energy use was up by about 4 percent compared to the same period in 2023. This could simply be a matter of changing weather conditions that required more heating or cooling. But there have been several trends that should increase electricity usage: the rise of bitcoin mining, growth of data centers, and the electrification of appliances and transport. So far, that hasn't shown up in the actual electricity usage in the US, which has stayed largely flat for decades. It could be possible that 2024 is the year where usage starts going up again. Since the findings are based on data from before some of the most productive months of the year for solar power, solar production for the year as a whole could increase by much more than 25%. Overall, the EIA predicts solar production could rise by as much as 42% in 2024.

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