Article 6PGPA A variation on Rock, Paper, Scissors

A variation on Rock, Paper, Scissors

by
John
from John D. Cook on (#6PGPA)

Imagine in a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors one player is free to play as usual but the other is required to choose each option the same number of times. That is, in 3n rounds of the game, the disadvantaged player much choose Rock n times, Paper n times, and Scissors n times.

Obviously the unrestricted player would be expected to win more games, but how many more? At least one, because the unrestricted player knows what the restricted player will do on the last round.

If n is large, then in the early rounds of the game it makes little difference that one of the players is restricted. The restriction doesn't give the unrestricted player much exploitable information. But in the later rounds of the game, the limitations on the restricted player's moves increase the other players chances of winning more.

It turns out that the if the unrestricted player uses an optimal strategy, he can expect to win O(n) more rounds than he loses. More precisely, the expected advantage approaches 1.4658n as n grows. You can find a thorough analysis of the problem in this paper.

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