Iran will fall into Netanyahu’s trap if it hits Israel hard – but it can still avoid disaster | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

A major attack would strengthen the Israeli leader and scupper peace talks over Gaza. A ceasefire should be Tehran's priority

On 31 July, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in what is believed to have been an Israeli operation. Haniyeh died in a facility in north Tehran, not long after he attended the inauguration of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. How exactly Haniyeh was killed remains unclear. Israeli sources claim it was done using a bomb that had been smuggled into a bedroom in the facility ahead of Haniyeh's visit. The bomb was then remotely detonated. Iranian sources insist that he was killed by a rocket fired into the building from a nearby hillside. Whatever the method, the assassination was yet another humiliating intelligence failure for Iran.

For the second time this year, the region is on the brink of a major war as Iran considers its response to a major Israeli provocation. In the view of Iranian analysts, such provocations are traps" set by the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to drag Iran into a wider war - especially as pressure mounts for a ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu, who is increasingly unpopular, is unlikely to remain prime minister in the aftermath of a ceasefire. For years, he has exaggerated the threat posed by Iran, and particularly its nuclear programme, to fuel his political ascendence. Now he is seeking war with Iran to avert his personal downfall.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is the founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a thinktank focused on economic policymaking in the Middle East and Central Asia

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