‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win

Nate Silver's election model is once again being pored over by millions of anxious voters. The gambler turned statistician talks about the race for White House, the risk-takers redefining our culture, and the probability of God

Is London a little bit tame for Nate Silver? The stats expert known for his hugely influential US election model is in town promoting a new book about risk, and can't help noticing all the ways in which we play it safe on this side of the Atlantic. You go to the tube in London and they have guard doors, which they don't have in the subway in New York." (He's evidently been riding the Elizabeth line). Or, You're in an Uber and you don't put your seatbelt on in the back seat,and there's like the very polite Britishbeeping," he says, with a disarming, high-velocity giggle. Notthat he mindstoo much - you get the impression he's fond of the city, wherehe spent a year as a student, andin any case both countries are making different trade-offs" - the US has less regulation and higher growth, but lower life expectancy: the very definition oflivefast, die young.

It's clear, though, where he feels most at home. I spent a lot of time in casinos over the course of writing this book," he confesses in the opening pages of On the Edge, describing one in Florida that boasts 200 gaming tables, 1,275 guest rooms, 3,000 slot machines and a glimmering guitar-shaped hotel that shoots beams of neon blue light 20,000ft into the sky". A far-cry from the sedate charm of the Royal Society ofArts, where he sits, in a baseball capand T-shirt, munching chocolate brought by his PR for a much-needed blood sugar boost (It'seight hours of back-to-back stuff today"). To go by hisnew taxonomy ofcontemporary power, we're very much in The Village"; that dopamine-doused casino he described is part of The River".