The presidential race is far tighter than many Democrats probably realize | John Zogby

Harris is leading in five of seven key battleground states - but her leads are only one or two percentage points

Amid the turbulence, conflict, hyperbole, unprecedented misogyny, and downright hate that provides the backdrop for US elections this year, one thing remains in equilibrium: the 2024 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris may lead following a honeymoon, a great nominating convention, and a solid debate performance, but she never leads by much. Former President Donald Trump may at other times lead nationally and in a few battleground states, but by one or two percentage points, more or less.

Around 5%-8% of voters remain undecided but they are probably not really focused on anything more than keeping their job, getting the kids off to school, grocery shopping, and the other demands of everyday life. And there is only a little wiggle room, with so many decided voters firm in their support for their candidate or their intense disgust for the other candidate.

John Zogby is senior partner at the polling firm of John Zogby Strategies and is author of Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read the Polls and Why We Should