Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon May Doom Kamala Harris’s White House Chances

Members of the Middle Eastern community in Dearborn, Mich., hold a candlelight vigil on the anniversary October 7 attacks in Israel, on Oct. 7, 2024. Photo: Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images via AFP

In July, while playing golf with my dad in Michigan, a woman called out to me after seeing Deira" printed in Arabic text on my shirt, a reference to the Al Deira Hotel, once a proud landmark in Gaza now reduced to rubble by Israeli forces.

It's worrisome to wear Arabic in public these days, but this club has members who hail from Israel's neighbors, including those of Lebanese, Palestinian, and Syrian descent.

We lost 18 family members in the Orthodox Church bombing."

I'm from the West Bank!" the woman yelled.

I recognized her; her husband is Lebanese. She asked about my shirt, so I explained the story of the Al Deira Hotel. Her companion, a Syrian woman, chimed in: We lost 18 family members in the Orthodox Church bombing." I interjected that my cousin's cousin lost three children in that same bombing. She paused, then said, That's my cousin." We smiled, bittersweetly, realizing - as people of Arab heritage often do in Michigan - that we're likely distant relatives.

This wasn't in Dearborn. It was in Grand Rapids, which helped deliver the state to Joe Biden in 2020. My dad's family, like many in West Michigan, comes from Lebanon - though when my great-grandfather journeyed here, it was still Syria.

Our family that remains in Lebanon dwells almost exclusively in the Bekaa Valley, a fertile oasis where vineyards and crops flourish, cradled between majestic peaks that stand sentinel near the Syrian border. This lush landscape has been their ancestral home for generations. It's also a Hezbollah stronghold, and today families like mine fear for their lives as Israeli bombs rain from the sky.

Another Twist of the Knife

Until now, the story of Michigan's role in the election has centered on Arab Americans' profound discontent with the Democratic Party over Israel's relentless devastation of Gaza. The war has left deep emotional wounds.

Israel's recent military incursion into Lebanon feels like another twist of the knife, intensifying the sense of betrayal and alienation of one of the most critical voting constituencies in the country.

Kamala Harris's chances of winning the presidency will plummet if she loses Michigan, and current polling shows she and Donald Trump are neck and neck there.

We may look back on the weeks after Israel invaded Lebanon as the moment Harris lost significant ground.

In addition to about 9,000 Palestinian Americans, Michigan is home to roughly 82,000 Lebanese Americans - more than any other state. Considering that Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by fewer than 11,000 voters in 2016, Lebanese Michiganders could very well decide the 2024 election.

Come November 5, I think we may look back on the weeks after Israel invaded Lebanon as the moment Harris lost significant ground in the race.

As I sat down to write this, I got a text from a family member back in Michigan, Reema Ghareeb: I just found out there was a strike three minutes from my cousin's house."

She was going to vote for Harris, but now she doesn't think she can.

I'd never vote for Trump, he'd be worse," she said, but in light of what's happening in Lebanon I have no idea how I can vote for Harris."

Post-Biden Hopes

Biden's departure from the ticket in July sparked the belief among some Arab Americans that change was possible. When Israel responded to the October 7 attacks by invading Gaza last year, Harris was not the face of the Democratic Party. That distinction gave her a little wiggle room to decouple from Biden's decision to unconditionally back Israel.

Now, with Harris leading the party and Israel bombing Lebanon with America's full support, that sense of distance has vanished.

Since last month, Israel's assault in Lebanon has driven more than 1.2 million people from their homes and killed over 2,000. Twenty-two people were killed in a Beirut apartment building leveled by a U.S.-made bomb. Kamel Jawad, an American citizen from Michigan, who was caring for his mother, was among them.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event on Oct. 18, 2024, in Grand Rapids, Mich. Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

The violence is deflating the hopes many projected on Harris, replacing them with a growing suspicion that she's just more of the same. Last week, the Arab American Political Action Committee, which is based in Michigan, announced that for the first time since its founding in 1998, it was refusing to issue a presidential endorsement because both candidates have endorsed genocide in Gaza and war in Lebanon."

What's happening in Lebanon has made persuasion very difficult," said Nada Al-Hanooti, the national deputy organizing director for Emgage, a nonprofit focused on civic engagement for Arab Americans. Emgage endorsed Harris, believing that she would try to secure a ceasefire once in office, Al-Hanooti explained, but her ability to break with the president is tightly constrained right now. That nuance, Al-Hanooti conceded, wasn't resonating with Lebanese voters.

For many, it's very hard for them to see past their grief."

There are some community members we've spoken to who are seeing the strategy and are voting on strategy," she said. But for many, it's very hard for them to see past their grief."

Behind the scenes, Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan implored Harris earlier this month to push for a ceasefire. She was reportedly sympathetic to their concerns, but the only thing voters noticed was that the administration backed away from its proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon and instead endorsed Israel's invasion.

The Threat of Silence

Arab Michiganders' anxieties are only further stoked by the sense of abandonment felt by Americans in Lebanon who try, and fail, to return home. After the October 7 attacks, the United States moved quickly to evacuate citizens from Israel. Navy vessels were dispatched, and flights were arranged to support their departure.

By contrast, the response to the 7,000 Americans in Lebanon who have reached out to the U.S. Embassy seeking evacuation guidance has been sluggish and disorganized. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., shared a poignant video on Instagram, calling the situation a disgrace and expressing frustration that her staff has to beg" for the administration's help to get her constituents home.

Related Kamala Harris Refused to Meet With Uncommitted About Gaza - and Uncommitted Refused to Endorse Her

With the election so close, I have trouble grasping the Democrats' strategy. As I see it, the Biden administration isn't just neglecting the safety of these Americans but also risking the whole of Michigan, a critical battleground state, just weeks away from what it has deemed the most consequential election in modern American history.

Everyone I know only wantsfor their families to be safe. Every Lebanese American has watched in horror this last year as Israel has bombed hospitals, apartment buildings, churches, bakeries, schools, United Nations centers, and refugee camps in Gaza, transforming a vibrant community into a graveyard of haunted rubble.

The U.S. has provided aid even as it continues to supply bombs. And now, with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening Lebanon with the same fate as Gaza - with no assurance from the Biden administration that it will try to intervene - what can the Lebanese diaspora do but heed his ominous words?

Right now, it feels like every casualty in Lebanon is costing Harris a vote.

If Harris wants to secure Michigan, she must rekindle the hope that she can forge a different future for Lebanese families. That starts with offering Lebanese voters a glimmer of commitment to restrain Netanyahu. What the Harris campaign must understand is the deep-rooted connections that Michiganders have with Lebanon - lifelines that stretch through families, communities, churches, mosques, and tightly knit networks.

Our grief isn't confined to war-torn enclaves but extends to suburban golf courses and family group chats. Right now, it feels like every casualty in Lebanon is costing Harris a vote. The grief breeds disillusionment and solidarity with our compatriots abroad and threatens to transform into silence at the ballot box.

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